Concerning the Goldman Sachs bean acreage number released today. Their acreage at 75.6 million is a major problem. Harvested acreage equates to 74.8 million. Yield at 44 (I’m being generous) equates to production at 3.290. Usage from 10/11 was 3.355 billion. Anyone else see a problem here? Even with imports of 15 million, there is a carryout of -60 million for 11/12 alone. If usage does not drop, the margin for production error is less than 10 million. China is currently 6% above last year on net bean imports in 2 months. Anyone want to bet that ends? As I see it, the simple fact is, the SX-CZ spread is toooooo tight at $7.30. I think beans need to work hard to avert a major problem.
MPI
