OK, here is my take on the now abused Coppock Curve. First, a definition:
The indicator is designed for use on a monthly time scale. It’s the sum of a 14-month rate of change and 11-month rate of change, smoothed by a 10-period weighted moving average. When the result is negative – assumed to be significantly negative – and then turns up we get a buy signal. It is not designed to give sell signals.
Keep in mind that this is a very long-term indicator and it cannot EVER catch the bottom. The math will not allow it to do that. Therefore, it is quite possible that we are indeed seeing a major bottom form.
Now let’s take out heads out of our….ivory towers and put them back in the real world. Any money manager who misses a 30-40% rally gets fired. Plus, even though the signal fired, there is no accounting for a decent correction.
So, use this indicator as just another bit of evidence that we are not going to Hades in a handbasket but for making money, caveat emptor.
I seem to recall writing back in November that while there may be a lower low it won’t be all that much and investors buying then would be quite happy in a year or two.
