Potential buy entry in (GCC) – The Wagner Daily
The Wagner Daily – March 24, 2011
Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs
Commentary:
Stocks finished higher on Wednesday after a slow start. The market opened in the red but then staged an impressive intraday reversal on increased volume. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a 0.6% gain, while the Nasdaq improved by 0.5% for the session. The S&P 500 tacked on 0.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 advanced marginally as it finished higher by 0.1%. The S&P MidCap 400 was the only index that was unable to end the day in positive territory. Still, given the slow start in the market, the mid cap index ended down by only 0.1% for the session.
Turnover was higher on both major indices on Wednesday. Volume improved by 7% on both the Nasdaq and the NYSE. The NYSE saw advancing volume finish at par with declining volume, while advancing volume edged out declining volume on the Nasdaq by a ratio of 1.6 to 1. Given the sharp reversal and increase in volume, Wednesday would likely be categorized as an accumulation day.
The GreenHaven Continuous Commodity Index ETF (GCC) has recently undercut and rallied back above the 50-day MA. Over the past four days this ETF has been consolidating above its 20-day EMA. A rally above the four day high of $35.09 may provide a long entry for GCC. We will be monitoring GCC for a possible long entry.
The Market Vector Coal ETF has maintained significant relative strength during the recent market volatility. Since January 2010 this ETF has tested and held support near $45.30. Yesterday, it broke above a three day consolidation pattern on a strong volume. As a more aggressive trade, KOL may provide a long entry above yesterday’s high. Ideally, we would prefer to see a pullback to yesterday’s breakout point or to the rising 20-day EMA for a possible long entry.
Based on the impressive and swift nature of Wednesday’s reversal, we wouldn’t be surprised to see some follow through to the upside. Nonetheless, the market has created serious overhead over the past several weeks and any follow through could be short lived.
Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: deron@morpheustrading.com.
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