I’d say the stock market is tired and telling us it has had enough of the bull. My thoughts:
I often use the analogy of the civil trial lawyer when talking about how a chartist decides the right action to take. Unless the entire judge and jury was at the scene of the crime as it was happening there is no way anyone can be 100% certain of what happened. So, the prosecution digs for all sorts of evidence including witnesses, forensics, motive, opportunity to commit the crime and anything circumstantial to paint a picture that is consistent with the crime being committed by the defendant.
In charting, we look at trend, momentum, price structure, volume, sentiment, sector considerations and intermarket conditions. The idea is to run through your desired list of items and indicators and see how many fall on the bullish side of the ledger as well as how many are bearish or of no real help. Some seem to be fundamental but I’ll give them a technical spin.
Bullish:
The trend remains up.
The Fed says it will not sell its bonds but just stop buying them after QE2. That means supply is not going to balloon and liquidity should remain strong enough to keep the market resilient
Corporate profits and a weak dollar may be all fundamental but it keeps money flowing into the stock market and that is technical.
Bearish
Weekly reversal bars on major indices
Breakdowns and successful tests in several major indices.
Waning momentum
Rash of bond financing by companies with cash already on hand (remember the cry for corporations to deploy their cash to help the economy?)
Lots of IPOs (does not happen at bottoms)
Emerging markets lagging
Tech and financials lagging while defensive sectors leading
There are more. If you were the judge, how would you rule?
