The Commodity Specialist view – The uptrend in Gold over the last few months was characterized by steady acceleration and muted setbacks. The 27-Nov Dubai sell-off, albeit brief, suggested growing fragility and, after certain Fibonacci projections were reached, the market finally started to let off steam. There should be further downside prior to resumption of the long term uptrend.
- WEEKLY CHART – CONTINUATION:
The acceleration upwards in the second half of 2009 recently reached the Fibo projection we had shown in the Commodity Specialist Guide, at 1220, 1.618 swing off prior 1014.60/681.00 2008 downmove.
Reaction here has been negative, prompting a pullback phase.
On this chart note potentially strong support from the prior highs above 1000. - DAILY CHART – FEB-10:
On this chart the uptrend failed just ahead of a growth projection we had calculated.
When the first dual Fibo support just above 1150 was breached a pullback phase was confirmed.
The next dual Fibo support just above 1100 is so far being effective, but any s/term strength is seen as temporary ahead of a further slip. The 61.8% & 76.4% bounce levels at 1183 & 1200 should indicate the maximum extent of any s/term recovery.
Next target is the lower support area in the 1070s, which includes 50% and 76.4% levels, and 14-Oct high. Ultimately support from around the 1012.90 Feb high should hold, but at present it is hard to gauge whether this will be seen.
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