Consumer Discretionary (XLY) price rose above previous highs.
Technology (XLK) price rose above the highs of the previous 4 years.
Consumer Staples (XLP) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 months.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) fell back below its 50-day SMA, turning technically neutral again.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below the lows of the previous 12 weeks, reconfirming a downside correction.
The stock market started Tuesday in the red, following losses in Europe, but the weakness did not last long. Major equity averages reversed to the upside after the opening 30 minutes and were narrowly higher after the first 90 minutes.
The stock market’s ability to reverse its early losses is a sign of resilience. The bullish majority appears willing to buy minor price pullbacks, which have been brief and shallow, with none as large as 2% over the past 7 weeks.
Stocks spent the afternoon treading water. By the close, the day’s gains were modest, up 0.20% for the S&P 500. The most sensitive price momentum indicators actually sagged lower. Once again, the market looks like it is losing bullish momentum and, therefore, could be vulnerable.
The trend obviously is up now, with higher highs in all time frames. The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,347.05) is near its highs of 2011, and it is probable that it will encounter resistance near those highs, plus or minus a few percentage points.
Potential Reward relative to potential Risk does not appear attractive.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1349.31, Gann 87.5% projection 10/11 range
1349.24, high of 2/7/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.59, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 2/1/12, turning technically neutral again. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend for the longer term. Support 115.55, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 120.91, 121.64, 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) fell back below its 50-day SMA on 2/7/12, turning technically neutral again. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend. Support 104.00, 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.49 and 106.66.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 2/7/12 but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose above its 200-day SMA on 2/7/12 and rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/19/12 but remains neutral because the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below the lows of the previous 12 weeks on 2/7/12, reconfirming a downside correction. UUP fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/23/11 but remains above its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.18, 22.41, 22.46, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) remains neutral, above its 50-day SMA but below its 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 2/2/12. USO is neutral, below its 50-day SMA but above its 200-day SMA. Support 36.67, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 38.96, 39.96, 40.74, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rebounded on 2/7/12 after falling below the lows of the previous 7 trading days on 2/6/12. GLD rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 2/2/12, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term uptrend. GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/23/12 and rose above its 200-day SMA on 1/10/12. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 166.61, 160.29, 159.68, 158.01, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 171.23, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years on 1/24/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. GDX/GLD remains bearishly below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 2/2/12, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term uptrend. SLV rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12. SLV remains below its falling 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 32.02, 30.67, 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 33.45, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 2/7/12, confirming a short-term uptrend. SLV/GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12 but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV/GLD fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/28/11, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) whipsawed back below its 200-day SMA on 2/6/12 and remains technically neutral. Longer term, JJC’s 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.68% , IGN , Networking, IGN
11.35% , NCR , NCR
0.40% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
4.45% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
3.86% , HAR , Harman International
6.17% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
0.24% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
0.85% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
2.56% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
5.24% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
5.28% , CHD , Church & Dwight
2.63% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
0.60% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.86% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
2.28% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
2.44% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
2.43% , BBT , BB&T
2.60% , KSS , KOHLS
1.54% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
2.11% , JCP , JC PENNEY
0.68% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
2.08% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
0.27% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
1.43% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
1.26% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.35% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
0.47% , XLY , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
3.03% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
0.88% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
1.79% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
1.66% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.25% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
1.43% , MCD , MCDONALDS
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.74% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-6.98% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-3.66% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
-3.76% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
-3.47% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-5.94% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
-2.83% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-3.75% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
-3.32% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-2.72% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
-5.39% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
-1.23% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
-1.50% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.63% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-2.11% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-3.53% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
-0.23% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.21% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-1.30% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-1.71% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-0.96% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-1.89% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-2.11% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
-1.26% , CVG , CONVERGYS
-4.61% , PWER , POWER ONE
-1.60% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
-0.74% , KEY , KEYCORP
-1.29% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-1.20% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-0.93% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-1.43% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-1.06% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-0.70% , LM , LEGG MASON
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.77% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.66% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.51% Italy Index, EWI
1.51% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.26% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.21% France Index, EWQ
1.12% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.10% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.09% Spain Index, EWP
1.04% Japan Index, EWJ
1.03% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.02% Austria Index, EWO
1.01% Russia MV, RSX
0.93% European VIPERs, VGK
0.88% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.86% Belgium Index, EWK
0.79% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.76% Germany Index, EWG
0.74% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.72% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.70% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.68% Networking, IGN
0.68% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.68% Sweden Index, EWD
0.67% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.63% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.62% South Korea Index, EWY
0.62% EAFE Index, EFA
0.60% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.57% Energy Global, IXC
0.55% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.55% Energy DJ, IYE
0.54% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.52% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.52% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.52% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.51% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.47% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.47% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.47% Global 100, IOO
0.40% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.40% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.36% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.34% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.33% Dividend International, PID
0.31% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.31% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.31% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.30% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.30% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.29% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.27% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.27% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.27% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.26% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.25% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.25% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.25% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.24% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.24% Singapore Index, EWS
0.23% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.23% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.23% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.23% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.22% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.22% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.22% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.22% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.21% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.21% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.21% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.21% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.21% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.20% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.20% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.20% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.19% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.18% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.16% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.16% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.14% South Africa Index, EZA
0.13% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.12% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.12% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.11% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.11% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.09% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.09% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.08% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.08% Mexico Index, EWW
0.07% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.05% Water Resources, PHO
0.05% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.05% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.05% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.03% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.00% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.03% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.03% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.04% Australia Index, EWA
-0.05% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.06% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.07% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.07% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.08% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.08% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.10% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.10% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.11% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.11% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.12% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.14% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.14% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.16% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.17% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.18% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.18% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.19% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.19% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.21% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.23% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.25% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.31% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.37% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.37% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.38% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.38% Canada Index, EWC
-0.49% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.50% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.64% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.65% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.83% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.24% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.43% India PS, PIN
-1.50% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.51% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.55% Biotech SPDR, XBI
