The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,387.81) rose 0.07% on Tuesday. NYSE trading volume fell 4% to a level 12% below its 200-day SMA. With some traders taking off for the Thanksgiving holiday, the rest of the week might be quiet.
The technical condition of the stock market has not supported the excessive optimism that the bullish majority of stock investors and traders clearly exhibited over the past several months. The old Wall Street saying, “Buy the rumor, sell the news”, marked the stock market top on 9/14/12, the day after the Fed announced its widely-anticipated latest round of Quantitative Easing. Maybe the same playbook for the fiscal cliff? Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts preserved capital over the past 9 weeks while the S&P 500 fell 8.9%, based on intraday highs and lows from 9/14/12 to 11/16/12. In addition, our clients’ accounts made gains every quarter for the past 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1427.56, 50-day SMA
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1382.70, 200-day SMA
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically neutral on 11/2/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 22.14, 21.86, 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.36, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA)turned systematically neutral on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, but the 50-200 spread has been narrowing gradually.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/7/12, confirming its preexisting bearish trend. USO turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.88, 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/2/12, confirming its preexisting corrective trend. GLD turned systematically neutral on 10/23/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. GLD price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. Support: 162.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 168.54, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral on 11/5/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. GDX/GLD fell below its 200-day SMA on 11/12/12. The 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since 10/19/12, but a bearish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) has been fluctuating between its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA for most of November and remains neutral. The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/1/12. Support 29.84, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 32.23, 33.23, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/20/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. Longer term, SLV/GLD 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/9/12 and remains moderately above.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC)fell below its lows of the previous 10 weeks on 11/9/12. JJC price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/22/12 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/19/12. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, and so this price weakness may be taken as a warning about economic conditions ahead.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.63% , MAS , MASCO
0.99% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
0.72% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
2.93% , JCP , JC PENNEY
1.97% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
2.21% , TLAB , TELLABS
1.60% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
2.95% , NCR , NCR
2.64% , DLX , DELUXE
2.78% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
1.00% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
2.87% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
3.50% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
1.95% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
0.38% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
1.49% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
3.22% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
0.74% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
5.35% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
1.81% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
0.86% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
0.42% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.47% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
1.14% , DRI , DARDEN REST
1.25% , SNA , SNAP ON
3.09% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
0.25% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.86% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
1.32% , MKC , MCCORMICK
0.23% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
2.20% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
0.20% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.43% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-11.95% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-13.02% , BBY , BEST BUY
-8.41% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
-13.63% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-3.28% , A , AGILENT TECH
-3.94% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-3.81% , SPLS , STAPLES
-0.62% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-2.20% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.43% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.28% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-3.64% , INTC , INTEL
-0.42% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-1.27% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
-1.98% , WPO , Washington Post
-3.50% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-0.45% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.22% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
-2.20% , HNZ , HJ HEINZ
-2.00% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-0.95% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
-0.80% , SO , SOUTHERN
-0.81% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.94% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
-0.70% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-0.65% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-0.41% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.40% , XLK , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.74% , PCG , PG&E
-0.27% , L , LOEWS
-0.31% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.49% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-0.05% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
