September 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Early Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no real feature in overnight/early morning trading today. Treasuries are weaker and U.S. stock index prices are narrowly mixed. Crude oil and gold are slightly lower. The U.S. dollar is higher early today.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap for today is the weekly ICSC store sales index, Redbook retail sales, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index. Fed governor Bies speaks today in Washington.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are narrowly mixed in early morning electronic trading, following good gains Monday. Bulls have some near-term technical momentum on their side following Monday’s strength.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,330.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,325.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday’s high of 1,340.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at 1,345.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,332.50
1st Support:—— 1,324.87
2nd Support:—— 1,314.00
1st Resistance:— 1,343.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,350.85
December Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at 725.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at last week’s low of 719.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 734.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 740.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:———— 729.00
1st Support:—— 723.65
2nd Support:—— 714.60
1st Resistance:— 738.15
2nd Resistance:— 743.60
December Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,600 and then more stops just below support at Monday’s low of 11,560. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 11,698 and then more buy stops just above resistance at last week’s high of 11,720. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,635
1st Support:—— 11,573
2nd Support:—— 11,497
1st Resistance:— 11,711
2nd Resistance:— 11,773
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Prices are weaker in early trading in Chicago, on mild profit-taking pressure from recent strong gains. Bulls still have near-term technical momentum after strong recent gains.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and is above the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Monday’s high of 113 11/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 113 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 112 18/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 112 8/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 113 even
1st Support:—– 112 22/32
2nd Support:—– 112 7/32
1st Resistance:– 113 15/32
2nd Resistance:– 113 25/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 108.22.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 109.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish for today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Monday’s low of 108.09.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 108.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 108.18.0
1st Support:—— 108.12.0
2nd Support:—— 108.04.0
1st Resistance:— 108.26.0
2nd Resistance:— 109.00.0
