Pretty quiet day, and most likely what we will see through the Holidays.
To begin with, the Stock indexes were flat, ending lower on the day. There was a flurry of activity when the Fed Chairman spoke, but all in all a non-event. The stock indexes are in a consolidation pattern after DJZ rallied over 2500 points from its July lows to last week’s highs.
SPZ rallied over 250 handles over the same time. The market climbed the wall of worry, and was fueled by short covering as bears continued to load up, get slapped and then puke their losers, driving the market higher in thin markets. The volume may be there, but the liquidity is not
.
SPZ posted a high at 111020, a low at 110000 and settled down 4.40 at 110370.
DJZ posted a high at 10430 and a low at 10327, displaying the 100 pt range I thought we’d see today. DJZ settled slightly lower -9 ticks at 10391. On the daily charts DJZ is in a 200 point sideways range between 10200 and 10500. We most likely will not break out of that range until January’s Unemployment Number. That is the figure which really matters this day, although with rates effectively at zero, the only surprises would lay in a surprised fed hike. And with the economy in the current state, I can’t see that developing quite yet.
On to crude oil, which looks to be in an intermediate down trend, since being unable to break through the 80 dollar a barrel level of resistance. Today we settled down 118 at 7607. There is support at the 7400 band, which must be broken to definitively shift the trend to bearish from cautiously bearish.
Today the grains had some volatility, ahead of tonight’s crop progress reports. With a big snow heading through the Midwest, it remains to be seen how much corn is still left in the field.
We were higher this morning, and then the corn and wheat took us down. The Beans had a surprising rally into the close, while the corn and wheat headed lower. The exports continue to be high to the Chinese. Each time the beans break, the Chinese show up to buy. With the dollar on the cheap side, the Chinese are buying what they need when they can.
For the day, SF had a high at 1061 1/2 after an open at 1048. SF rallied into the close to settle at the 1053 level, up 10 cents.
WZ had a high at 538 3/4, a low at 525 3/4 and settled on its lows at 526 1/2 down 10 1/4 cents.
CZ had a high at 378, a low at 368 and a settlement down 5 cents at 368 3/4.
We will have to wait to see what the crop progress report is, and we will have to see if the strength in the beans holds up and we can rally above the 1068-1075 levels.
Finally, the metals are definitely building a congestion pattern after moving sharply off of last weeks record highs at 10250 plus in the gold and 1950 plus in the silver. Gold settled down ten dollars at 1159.2. Silver settled down 300 at 1822, down over a dollar from the 1950 record highs last week.
Good Trading
