OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There was no feature in overnight quiet trading. Gold and crude oil are firmer in early electronic dealings. The dollar is slightly higher versus the other major currencies. T-Bonds and T-Notes are slightly higher and the U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher in early electronic trading. Grains were mostly higher in overnight electronic trading. There was no fresh, major, market-moving fundamental news overnight. The big news today is the afternoon Fed FOMC announcement.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is weekly jobless claims, the GDP report, the help-wanted index and weekly DOE natural gas stocks report. Also, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing report is out. And this afternoon the conclusion of the FOMC meeting, when it’s expected that U.S. interest rates will be hiked again. But there is uncertainty about the meeting’s outcome–whether the Fed will hike by 25 basis points or by 50 basis points.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are higher in early morning electronic trading. Trading has again turned choppy and my bias is still that trading will remain choppy in the near term, amid summertime doldrums in the stock market.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are now turning bullish. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is now moving above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are bullish today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,257.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at 1,250.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at the overnight high of 1,263.30. Light buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more buy stops are likely located just above shorter-term resistance at 1,270.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
1st Support:—— 1,250.15
2nd Support:—— 1,242.60
1st Resistance:— 1,261.65
2nd Resistance:— 1,265.57
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day is moving below the 9-day and 18-day moving averages. The 9-day moving average is now poised to move above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are bullish today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,537.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then heavier sell stops likely reside below solid support at the June low of 1,528.75. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1,578.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1,600.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
1st Support:—— 1,543.75
2nd Support:—— 1,529.75
1st Resistance:— 1,565.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,572.75
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday’s low of 10,970 and then just below support at 10,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 11,140 and then heavier stops just above resistance at last week’s high of 11,210. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. However, the 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
1st Support:—— 10,999
2nd Support:—— 10,940
1st Resistance:— 11,088
2nd Resistance:— 11,118
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day average and the 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Oscillators are neutral today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at 105 20/32 and then at 106 even. Buy stops likely lie just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 105 12/32 and then at the May low of 105 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels, with heavier stops likely just below the May low.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 105 20/32
1st Support:—– 105 8/32
2nd Support:—– 105 even
1st Resistance:– 105 28/32
2nd Resistance:– 106 8/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early morning dealings. Oscillators are neutral today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at Tuesday’s high of 104.13.0, and then just above resistance at 104.21.5. Shorter-term moving averages are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day average. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Heavier sell stop orders are likely located just below solid support at Monday’s contract low of 104.01.5, and then just below support at 103.24.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
1st Support:—— 103.31.0
2nd Support:—— 103.26.0
1st Resistance:— 104.10.0
2nd Resistance:— 104.16.0