If you are like me, and live in a swing-state for this 2012 election, you are absolutely sick and tired of the ads, smears, lies, and just everything politics. I give more thought to moving to North Dakota every time an election cycle rolls around just to avoid the onslaught of ads, mailings, and phone calls.idiot-the-other-guy-choice

But my question to you is, how does the market fare when it comes to a President seeking re-election? What is the norm and how does the market tend to react. As a result, I looked at every successful and unsuccessful re-election bid, dating back 32 years to to the Carter Vs. Reagan election to see if there was anything worth noting particularly from August through November (Elections occur on the second Tuesday of the month).

Jimmy Carter vs. Ronald Reagan: 1980

Despite the 70’s being pretty miserable for the economy, from August to November things seemed ‘suddenly favorable’ when Carter’s re-election came up. In particular the early part of August. What this chart should show you though (and later with Bush Sr.) is that despite a market rally into the election, it is no guarantee that a President will be re-elected.

carter-1980

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