Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/1/12, turning systematically bullish.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,405.82) rose 7.91 points or 0.57% on Tuesday. NYSE volume rose 7%.
Stocks were falling into the red at 9:59 a.m. ET. At 10:00 a.m., prices turned sharply upward on news of a better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing Index, at 54.8 for April, up from 53.4 for March. Stock prices continued to rise until 11:53 a.m., then began a slow erosion that accelerated in final hour. Prices had surrendered most of their early gains by the close.
The weekly MACD Histogram based on the SPX is approaching zero, illustrating a clear deceleration of the uptrend.
Seasonal tendencies for the few days at the end of one month and the beginning of the next month are generally bullish, if only by a small amount. Declining stock prices in this time window would reveal underlying market weakness.
SPX has traded in a 4.57% range, between intraday extremes of 1,357.38 and 1,422.38, for 7 weeks, since 3/8/12. The extremes of this range may be considered support and resistance.
The Reward to Risk Ratio for the stock market appears unattractive.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Available by subscription only (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1394.00, low of 4/30/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1385.04, 50-day SMA
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1357.38, low of 4/11/2012
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% R of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1337.35, low of 2/10/2012
1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% R of 2011-12 range
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1275.51, 200-day SMA
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% R of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% R of 2011-12 range
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) remains systematically neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.23, 22.47, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 4/23/12. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 17 months on 4/30/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/1/12, turning systematically bullish. USO remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 38.31, 36.67, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below its lows of the previous 12 weeks and fell further below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 4/4/12. Systematically, GLD turned bearish on 4/17/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Support: 156.58, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 4/23/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Systematically, GDX/GLD remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/25/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/30/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. SLV/GLD remains below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) bounced over the past 5 days but could soon encounter resistance. JJC fell below its lows of the past 3 months on 4/16/12, confirming a downtrend for the medium term. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
15.38% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
7.10% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
4.78% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
3.84% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
1.10% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
0.77% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
5.69% , MAS , MASCO
3.74% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
3.67% , MBI , MBIA
0.47% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
2.60% , DRI , DARDEN REST
0.54% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
0.53% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
1.56% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
0.74% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
1.69% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
1.32% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
0.37% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
2.32% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
2.69% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
1.88% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
3.45% , ADSK , AUTODESK
3.49% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
1.89% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
0.83% , IVE , Value S&P 500 B, IVE
2.48% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
2.47% , AA , ALCOA
1.51% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
0.94% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
2.76% , NI , NISOURCE
1.02% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
1.49% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
1.98% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-8.01% , AVP , AVON
-6.40% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
-4.92% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
-5.78% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-8.04% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-0.96% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.74% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-4.05% , CMI , CUMMINS
-6.25% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-2.88% , LM , LEGG MASON
-5.73% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-3.01% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-2.39% , XLNX , XILINX
-1.28% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
-0.87% , NEE , NextEra Energy Resources LLC
-0.77% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-0.51% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.03% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.11% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-1.02% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.27% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
-1.37% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
-3.74% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-2.05% , EL , Estee Lauder
-0.85% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-1.62% , SPLS , STAPLES
-0.63% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-1.16% , PCAR , PACCAR
-0.49% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-0.76% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.45% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-1.10% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-1.06% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.75% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.43% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.38% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.32% Energy DJ, IYE
1.27% South Africa Index, EZA
1.25% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.23% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.21% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.19% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.18% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.16% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.15% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.12% China 25 iS, FXI
1.11% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.08% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.04% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.02% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.02% Energy Global, IXC
1.02% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.00% Belgium Index, EWK
0.97% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.93% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.91% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.91% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.89% European VIPERs, VGK
0.89% Mexico Index, EWW
0.88% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.85% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.83% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.82% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.82% France Index, EWQ
0.80% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.79% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.77% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.77% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.74% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.73% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.72% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.71% Austria Index, EWO
0.71% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.68% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.68% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.68% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.66% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.66% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.66% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.64% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.64% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.62% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.62% South Korea Index, EWY
0.62% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.61% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.61% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.61% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.60% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.59% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.57% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.56% Canada Index, EWC
0.55% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.55% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.54% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.52% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.50% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.50% India PS, PIN
0.50% Australia Index, EWA
0.50% Italy Index, EWI
0.49% Sweden Index, EWD
0.49% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.49% Germany Index, EWG
0.48% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.48% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.48% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.47% Global 100, IOO
0.46% Spain Index, EWP
0.43% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.42% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.41% EAFE Index, EFA
0.40% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.40% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.40% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.39% Dividend International, PID
0.38% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.37% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.37% Water Resources, PHO
0.37% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.37% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.37% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.35% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.34% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.34% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.33% Russia MV, RSX
0.32% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.31% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.30% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.30% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.30% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.29% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.29% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.27% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.26% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.26% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.25% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.22% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.21% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.18% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.16% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.14% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.13% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.11% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.10% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.06% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.03% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.00% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.00% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.05% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.05% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.13% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.17% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.21% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.24% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.25% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.25% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.28% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.29% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.31% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.32% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.34% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.34% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.35% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.38% Networking, IGN
-0.48% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.51% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.52% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.67% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.76% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.03% Japan Index, EWJ
