* Latest Market Developments *

The market place is calmer so far this week, due in part to no major world economic data having been released. Traders and investors are already looking ahead to next week’s U.S. FOMC monetary policy meeting.

Things are also quieter on the geopolitical front this week. The Russia-Ukraine cease-fire is holding up. Reports Wednesday quoted the Ukrainian president as saying most Russian troops have now pulled away from the Russia-Ukraine border. This has added to a tone of increased investor risk appetite this week.

In overnight news, the German government auctioned 10-year notes for a record low yield of 1.05% Wednesday, and demand for the notes was very strong. The weak European Union economy and Euro currency, as well as recent geopolitical concerns, have boosted demand for the safer-haven German sovereign debt.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is again light and includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, monthly wholesale trade and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The market place is now less focused on the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and on other world hot spots. But it’s my bias this condition will not last and that geopolitics will have a bigger influence on markets in the coming weeks.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 1,995.00 and then at the record high of 2,002.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Tuesday’s low of 1,975.25 and then at 1,960.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading today. Bulls are still in technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 4,085.00 and then at Tuesday’s 14-year high of 4,106.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 4,052.00 and then at 4,035.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra- Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 17,075 and then at 17,100. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 17,000 and then at Tuesday’s low of 16,985. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today are hovering near a four-week low. Bulls have faded but still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9- day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137 30/32 and then at 138 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 137 14/32 even and then at 137 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early trading and hit another four-week low overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are also fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.23.0 and then at 125.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.15.5 and then at 124.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading on profit taking after hitting a contract and 14-month high on Tuesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight contract high of 84.460 and then at Tuesday’s contract high of 84.650. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 84.185 and then at 84.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $93.00 and then at $93.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $92.00 and then at last week’s low of $91.80. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly weaker in overnight trading. The recent surging U.S. dollar index is a bearish “outside market” force working against the grains recently. Grain market bears are still in full technical command. Prices are near their contract lows. There is a potential frost event that will occur in the northern Corn Belt later this week, which could be market-sensitive. Also, the monthly USDA supply and demand report is out Thursday, which is expected to show a record-large U.S. corn and soybean crop grown this year.