The FX Specialist view – After reaching a high for the year in May USD/CHF slipped steadily back, piercing the major 2008 low in Oct. Subsequent recovery has been relatively modest so far, and key resistance is currently holding the bulls back.
- WEEKLY CHART
The drop back in 2010 eroded the major 0.9674 2008 but found support around the bear channel base we had drawn in.
The top of the first resistance area on this chart comes from the rising old support/return line at 1.0065 currently – it is so far working. - DAILY CHART:
The recovery has put pressure on the 23.6% retracement at 1.0000 – a clear break of this and the resistance line from the Weekly chart would be an initial bull signal.
Attention would then turn to the 1.0328 level, 06-Aug low (and base of Jul/Aug congestion) and 38.2%.
S/term we wait to see if dips prove temporary. Ideally weakness should hold above the s/term rising support line at 0.9655 if a resumption of the bear trend is to be avoided.
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