Quarterly Performance
Total revenue in the quarter improved 1.7% year over year to $275.5 million. Red Robin’s total revenue comprises restaurant sales (up 0.3% to $267.5 million), franchise royalties and fees (up 0.4% to $4.2 million) and other revenue (up more than 100.0% to $3.8 million).
Comparable restaurant sales slashed 2.3% for company-owned restaurants in the reported quarter compared with an 8.1% decrease in the comparable period in the prior year, driven by a 2.4% decline in the average guest check, partially offset by a 0.1% increase in guest counts. Comparable sales for franchise restaurants in the U.S. dropped 2.1% year over year, while the same for Canada rose 4.8% year over year.
Selling, general and administrative expenses in the quarter leaped 24.2% year over year to $30.8 million attributable to investment in the company’s television media campaign.
Operating profit of Red Robin spiked up 7.6% year over year to $7.8 million and operating margin was up 10 basis points (bps) to 2.8% in the quarter, as its television advertising initiative lured more guests.
Tax Rate decreased to 17.1% from 25.3% in the previous year comparable quarter, primarily due to more favorable general business and tax credits.
Financial Aspects
Red Robin ended its first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $13.9 million, total outstanding debt of $170.2 million and with shareholders’ equity of $295.2 million. Total debt includes $113.3 million in borrowings under its $150 million term loan, $50.5 million of borrowings under its $150 million revolving credit facility and $6.3 million outstanding for capital leases.
Outlook
Red Robin reduced its revenue forecast for fiscal 2010 in the range of $872 million to $880 million from its previous expectation of $887 million to $895 million. The company also cut its 2010 earnings estimates to $1.10 to $1.30 per share, from its prior view of $1.27 to $1.45 per share. The company expects comparable restaurant sales to rise between 0% and 1% in fiscal 2010. The company intends to stress more on brand awareness through a national advertising campaign.
In fiscal year 2010, Red Robin plans to open 12 to 13 company-owned restaurants, and 3 to 4 franchised restaurants.
Our Recommendation
As the company has reduced its outlook, we maintain our Zacks #3 Rank on the stock, which translates into a short-term Neutral recommendation. Our long-term recommendation for the stock also remains in the middle of the road at Neutral.
Apart from Red Robin, another stock that promises long-term growth opportunities is Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG), for which we currently have an Outperform recommendation as it remained largely unruffled by the recent economic slowdown and reported a strong first quarter earnings of $1.19 per share, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 95 cents.
Read the full analyst report on “RRGB”
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