Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research

This article in Bloomberg Business Week today is in line with how we are viewing the current US corn & soybean crops at Weather Trends.  No doubt, the 2010 crop for both commodities will still produce good numbers for the 18 major growing states.  However, we think both the USDA and the market are too optimistic regarding crop potential.  Look at the July map below – this shows the year-over-year (2010/09) max temperature for July.  Remember, 2009 was a ‘good weather year’, particularly in the Jul-Sep time period.  Heat stress in July followed by a very wet start to August in key states will likely translate to smaller yield numbers than the market is currently figuring.

As a result, we are in agreement with the assessments in the article quoting the analyst from Northstar Commodities.