U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the past 18 months on 7/23/12, thereby confirming its preexisting uptrend.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its highs of the previous 2 years on 7/23/12, reconfirming its preexisting major bullish trend. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size.

Bonds, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) and iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) both rose to new highs, thereby confirming preexisting major uptrends.

The Relative Strength Ratios of the following international ETFs (which hold no U.S. stocks) fell below their lows of the previous 3 years:
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY)
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY)
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY)

The absolute prices of the following country ETFs fell below their lows of the previous 4 months:
Spain Index, EWP
Italy Index, EWI
China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
Austria Index, EWO

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 7/23/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,350.52) fell 12.14 points or 0.89% on Monday, for its second largest daily loss in 4 weeks. SPX approached its 50-day SMA and held above it, encouraging speculators willing to take the risk of trying to catch a falling knife, that is, willing to take the risk of guessing at turning point in a downtrend.

For the past few months, the day-to-day stock market movements have been highly reactive to the news of the day. That is unpredictable noise. Taking a longer perspective, weighing a wide variety of indicators, and projecting out weeks and months ahead, underlying market conditions suggest that downside risk still may exceed upside potential for the stock market. Choosing safety over risk appears to be the most reasonable approach.

For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1333.10, 50-day SMA
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1314.36, 200-day SMA
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the past 18 months on 7/23/12, thereby confirming its preexisting uptrend. UUP remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.78, 22.38, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.11, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) has been rising for 5 weeks but remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. The 50-200 spread has been narrowing for 3 weeks but there is still a substantial gap between these SMAs.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically neutral on 7/16/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. USO remains far below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day remains far below its 200-day SMA. Support 33.08, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.84, 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 4/17/12. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/9/12, turning systematically bearish again. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 6/28/12, thereby confirming its preexisting major bearish trend. SLV remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 27.98, 28.26, 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 6/28/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 7/23/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. In addition, JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.21% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
3.87% , ETN , EATON
1.49% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
3.57% , KBH , KB HOME
2.34% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
2.37% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
1.48% , PCAR , PACCAR
0.16% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
2.47% , BBY , BEST BUY
2.57% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
0.89% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
2.07% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.07% , JCP , JC PENNEY
0.51% , WMB , WILLIAMS
1.21% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.38% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
1.25% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
1.01% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.10% , JNK , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.78% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
1.59% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
2.34% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.68% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.29% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
0.53% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
0.51% , HD , HOME DEPOT
0.65% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
0.43% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
1.59% , CMI , CUMMINS
1.00% , KMX , CarMax
1.01% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
0.28% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
0.04% , SPLS , STAPLES

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.68% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
-1.72% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-0.60% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-2.17% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.10% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
-3.51% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
-1.97% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-1.91% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-4.01% , ASH , ASHLAND
-2.05% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.85% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
-4.49% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-0.98% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
-1.64% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-0.89% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
-1.42% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-3.09% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-3.09% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
-1.81% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.16% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
-0.96% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
-1.54% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-2.24% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-0.92% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-3.69% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-1.54% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN
-1.21% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-2.29% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-1.74% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-1.30% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-1.48% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-3.84% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
-3.73% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.01% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.56% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.16% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.10% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.09% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.07% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.08% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.16% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.23% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.28% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.32% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.42% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.49% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.51% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.51% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.57% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.60% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.63% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.65% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.65% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.66% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.73% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.74% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.80% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.81% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.81% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.83% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.84% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.84% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.85% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.87% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.88% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.88% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.89% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.92% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.92% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.94% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.96% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.96% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.96% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.97% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.97% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.98% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.98% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.99% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.01% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.02% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.02% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.03% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.05% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.06% Canada Index, EWC
-1.09% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.09% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.10% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.10% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.12% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.12% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.13% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.14% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.14% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.15% Water Resources, PHO
-1.17% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.18% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.18% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.19% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.20% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.21% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.24% Energy Global, IXC
-1.25% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.26% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.27% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.27% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.28% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.28% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.31% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.34% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.34% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.38% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.42% Spain Index, EWP
-1.43% Dividend International, PID
-1.45% Global 100, IOO
-1.46% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.47% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.52% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.53% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.53% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.54% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.55% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.58% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.60% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.62% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.63% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.64% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.67% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.72% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.72% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.74% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.76% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.79% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.81% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.85% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.87% Australia Index, EWA
-1.88% Networking, IGN
-1.89% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.97% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.99% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.02% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-2.05% EAFE Index, EFA
-2.05% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.07% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.08% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-2.09% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.10% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-2.13% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.17% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.20% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.20% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-2.21% Belgium Index, EWK
-2.22% Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.25% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-2.29% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.30% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.40% India PS, PIN
-2.45% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.45% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.51% Taiwan Index, EWT
-2.55% South Korea Index, EWY
-2.60% Emerging Markets, EEM
-2.61% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.75% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.91% Italy Index, EWI
-2.92% France Index, EWQ
-2.94% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.06% South Africa Index, EZA
-3.09% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-3.26% Germany Index, EWG
-3.29% Austria Index, EWO
-3.51% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-4.49% Russia MV, RSX