On Tuesday I wrote about the triangle formation in the Dollar Index futures.  (Read the post here.)  I expected to se it coil up in the triangle until Friday, when the August unemployment report would be a catalyst for a breakout move.

Instead, about an hour after I wrote the post, it had an upside breakout of the triangle, doing on Tuesday what I expected it to do in a few days.  (I drew the upper line of that triangle in green so you can see where it was.)

Because it occurred earlier than I thought, I was suspicious of Tuesday’s rally.  The suspicion was well-founded; Tuesday’s rally was unable to close over last week’s high (the blue horizontal line), it then sold off Wednesday and early today.

The selloff found support at the lower line of the triangle, and is back to the midpoint of the range.

So I’m back to my original prediction-the Dollar Index is in a triangle.  The upper line of the triangle is flatter than the one I drew earlier this week (although the steeper line was still good for a day trade).  As such, I’m still watching for a breakout of this triangle to determine the Dollar’s next move.

Back in the triangle

Back in the triangle

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