Today is a holiday in America. Banks and other institutions are closed, but, as Gordon Gekko said, “Money never sleeps,” or, in this case, money doesn’t recognize Columbus Day as a viable celebration; the market remains open and money is working, and I guess that means I am as well.
I suspect any of you who have been reading me steadily over time know my position on the economy, and, thus, the future of the market. I am an optimist, and as long as the data keeps informing me that the cycle is in intact, I will remain so, in spite of those with a large platform who shout the contrary.
Being an optimist does not imply that I am blinded to the reality of our current economic condition, nor does it mean that I approach the market differently, other than to be in as opposed to being out. No, I am quite informed as to the reality of economic conditions. Just ask any of my friends, who, when the discussion turns to the economy, find me a bit overwhelming, I suspect. You see, I don’t tolerate nonsense in a serious conversation, nor will I discuss serious issues in a cloud of misinformation and ignorance, and if one were to stop and smell the air in these days of “news” and punditry, one would clearly pick up the aroma of, well, nonsense.
So, when reading an article in Futures this weekend (Energy outlook: Economy rules, Christine Birkner), I put my nose in the air and whiffed. The aroma of nonsense filled my nose as I read serious analysts seriously analyze the current and near-term future of oil prices. Admittedly, I have a leg up on the analysts because although I am reading the October issue of Futures, the article relies on data from August (one problem with print media is early deadlines). So, when an analyst “currently” discusses oil prices in the context of the past and predicts prices based on past data, it easy to see if that analyst was correct or not.
I grant you, analyzing oil prices is a complicated business because the variables are many and complex – speculation, the U.S. dollar, interest rates, geo-political considerations, perception, and, lastly, supply and demand. But just because a thing is complex, it does not mean it is incomprehensible.
In any case, the article was informative and educational, but it did inspire the second and third paragraphs of this column. Reading what those analysts “thought” in September about where oil prices would be at the end of the year and why clarified for me a reality – those with a bunch of letters behind their name or with a fancy title related to investment or trading, can only see the future better than those who know no facts or are blinded with nonsense.
Those who take the time to find the data, mash it up with the opinions of others who rely on factual data, and then draw reasonable conclusions (right or wrong is irrelevant) are my “black gold,” so to speak. I value folks such as this, and even if I dismiss their conclusions as “nonsense,” this only suggests a character flaw on my part; it does not suggest any irreverence for those who take their fact-based analyses seriously, and in that process provide a valuable service for all of us out here.
Trade in the day; invest in your life …
