Copper Falling: iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the past 3 months on 4/13/12, confirming renewed downside momentum for the medium term. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,370.26) chart broke down below the rising lower boundary line of a Bearish Rising Wedge, thereby giving a clear bearish chart signal. This breakdown suggests that stocks could quickly erase all gains since the 10/4/11 low of 1,074.77 on the S&P 500.

A variety of technical indicators have been demonstrating waning bullish momentum for stocks. A downside correction or shakeout has seemed overdue, according to past norms.

Following unusually large price run ups, such as Q1 2012, stocks become more vulnerable to sudden reversals. Potential Reward relative to potential Risk remains unattractive for stocks at this time.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Available by subscription only (click here).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA, turning bullish again. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has stayed above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 21.85, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.23, 22.47, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index fell further below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/10/12. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 17 months on 4/10/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 4/3/12, turning systematically neutral. USO remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 38.31, 36.67, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 4/4/12. Systematically, GLD remains neutral: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, but with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 156.58, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years on 4/11/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Systematically, GDX/GLD remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) broke down below its lows of the previous 11 weeks on 4/4/12, suggesting renewed downside momentum for the medium term. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 30.11, 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) broke down below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 4/13/12, confirming renewed downside momentum for the medium term. SLV/GLD remains below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the past 3 months on 4/13/12, confirming renewed downside momentum for the medium term. Systematically, however, JJC remains neutral: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, but with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 3/21/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.32% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
2.81% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
2.31% , GPS , GAP
0.94% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
2.47% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
0.62% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
3.73% , PWER , POWER ONE
2.52% , SWY , SAFEWAY
1.95% , ADSK , AUTODESK
1.34% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
1.62% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
1.57% , AGN , ALLERGAN
0.57% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
3.54% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
2.58% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
1.58% , VFC , VF
0.97% , WPO , Washington Post
2.94% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
1.72% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
0.89% , SLE , SARA LEE
1.95% , AVP , AVON
0.31% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.83% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
2.05% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.34% , PLL , PALL
0.88% , WMB , WILLIAMS
0.88% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
0.59% , AZO , AUTOZONE
0.95% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
0.53% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
0.66% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
0.36% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.33% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-5.63% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-3.86% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
-4.12% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-4.31% , FHN , First Horizon National
-1.89% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-1.98% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-2.82% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.61% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-3.84% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-1.40% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-1.03% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-2.86% , ZION , ZIONS
-3.30% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
-2.03% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-1.91% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-3.02% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-1.29% , VTV , Value VIPERs, VTV
-2.67% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.70% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-1.54% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-2.10% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-6.42% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-4.06% , GOOG , Google
-2.91% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-4.15% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-2.05% , AES , AES
-3.19% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-1.21% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.07% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-4.27% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
-2.59% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.62% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.22% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.60% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.48% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.42% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.31% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.29% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.01% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.04% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.08% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.15% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.27% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.32% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.33% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.33% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.38% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.42% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.47% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.49% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.52% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.62% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.64% Russia MV, RSX
-0.69% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.70% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.71% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.73% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.74% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.88% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.88% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.89% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.90% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.91% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.91% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.99% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.99% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.00% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.00% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.01% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.02% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.02% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.03% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.06% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.07% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.07% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.08% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.10% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.10% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.10% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.11% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.13% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.13% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.14% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.14% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.14% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.18% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.18% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.18% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.19% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.19% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.20% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.21% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.21% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.21% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.22% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.23% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.23% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.24% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.25% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.25% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.27% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.28% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.28% Australia Index, EWA
-1.28% Water Resources, PHO
-1.29% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.31% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.33% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.34% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.37% Dividend International, PID
-1.42% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.43% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.46% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.48% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.50% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.51% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.51% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.52% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.52% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.54% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.54% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.55% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.55% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.55% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.57% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.58% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.58% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.60% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.64% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.73% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.74% Energy Global, IXC
-1.75% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.76% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.77% Global 100, IOO
-1.77% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.77% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.82% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.83% Networking, IGN
-1.85% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.86% Canada Index, EWC
-1.90% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.90% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.94% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.96% Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.01% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.03% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.03% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-2.09% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.10% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.10% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-2.22% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.25% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.32% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.61% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.63% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.67% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.69% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.73% Sweden Index, EWD
-2.74% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.77% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.82% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.85% Austria Index, EWO
-3.02% France Index, EWQ
-3.18% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-3.35% Germany Index, EWG
-3.63% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.76% Spain Index, EWP
-3.81% Italy Index, EWI
-4.15% India PS, PIN