The U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury Bonds are technically bullish.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 11 months, thereby confirming a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) broke down below the lows of the previous 5 trading days and a 6-week uptrend line on 11/18/11.
Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,215.65) fell 0.48 points or 0.04% on Friday, November 18, 2011. SPX opened higher and tried to rally several times before just giving up in the final 2 hours.
Volume on the NYSE fell 14%, suggesting investor apathy. The stock market has been falling on heavy volume and rising on light volume in November, which is a bearish indication.
SPX fell below the lows of the previous 4 weeks on 11/17/11, indicating a short-term downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows since 10/27/11 also confirm a downtrend for the short term.
A Pennant Pattern (resembling a small triangle spanning 15 trading days from 10/27/11 to 11/16/11) on the S&P chart was broken to the downside last week.
Given the deep-rooted global fundamental economic problems and the lack of workable solutions, plus the constant attempts of government officials to deny reality and talk the markets up, markets are likely to remain volatile, with a continuing heightened sensitivity to news, and with continuing large daily moves in both directions. Note that very high price volatility is typical of bear markets, while bull markets are much less volatile. Risk appears skewed to the downside.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 5 weeks on 11/17/11. UUP rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/11, turning technically bullish. Support 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.32 and 22.63.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 11 months on 11/18/11, thereby confirming a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) broke down below the lows of the previous 5 trading days and a 6-week uptrend line on 11/18/11. Previously, USO rose 37% from its October low and appeared overbought by 11/16/11, when it peaked out at 39.74. Moreover, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, implying a neutral medium-term trend. Longer term, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 36.49, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.74, 40.74, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below the lows of the previous 11 trading days on 11/17/11. Lower highs and lower lows since 11/8/11 indicate a downtrend for the short term. Support: 163.61, 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below 4-week lows on 11/18/11, suggesting a bearish trend for the short term. Longer term, GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) broke down below the lows of the previous 18 trading days on 11/17/11. Lower highs and lower lows since 10/27/11 indicate a downtrend for the short term. Longer term, SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. Support 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) broke down below the lows of the previous 7-weeks on 11/17/11. Lower highs and lower lows since 10/28/11 indicate a downtrend for the short term. Medium term, SLV/GLD has stayed in bearish position, below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs, every day since 8/4/11. Longer term, the SLV/GLD Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 11 months on 9/30/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend. SLV/GLD has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below the lows of the previous 4 trading days on 11/17/11 and remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.45% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
1.58% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
0.87% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
0.91% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
0.12% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
7.10% , SNV , SYNOVUS
2.60% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
3.71% , SVU , SUPERVALU
2.57% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
0.40% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
0.21% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
6.47% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
0.57% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
1.25% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
3.85% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
0.27% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
0.22% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.87% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
2.83% , TXT , TEXTRON
1.38% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.34% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
0.80% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.68% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
0.32% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
0.36% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
0.27% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
1.65% , SYY , SYSCO
4.06% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
1.42% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
1.40% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
0.63% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
1.38% , MAR , MARRIOTT INTL STK A
1.80% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.29% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-8.11% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-3.31% , HNZ , HJ HEINZ
-3.12% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-2.55% , GPS , GAP
-2.96% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-0.33% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-3.88% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
-0.21% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-1.47% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-0.28% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-1.74% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-1.75% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
-0.37% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
-1.84% , WAT , WATERS
-0.88% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
-0.45% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-0.55% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
-0.37% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.82% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
-0.36% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
-2.30% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
-0.86% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.48% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-0.57% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-2.20% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
-0.26% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
-2.55% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-0.15% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.11% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
-0.98% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
-1.83% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-1.81% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.48% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.58% Spain Index, EWP
1.38% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.30% Italy Index, EWI
1.07% Russia MV, RSX
0.96% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.86% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.85% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.84% South Korea Index, EWY
0.79% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.72% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.70% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.65% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.65% Belgium Index, EWK
0.65% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.64% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.64% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.63% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.57% France Index, EWQ
0.57% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.54% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.54% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.53% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.48% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.47% European VIPERs, VGK
0.46% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.45% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.45% Mexico Index, EWW
0.44% Japan Index, EWJ
0.43% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.42% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.42% Austria Index, EWO
0.42% Water Resources, PHO
0.40% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.36% Germany Index, EWG
0.35% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.35% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.35% EAFE Index, EFA
0.34% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.33% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.32% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.31% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.29% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.28% Dividend International, PID
0.24% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.24% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.23% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.23% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.22% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.21% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.21% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.19% Global 100, IOO
0.18% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.17% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.16% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.16% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.16% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.15% Canada Index, EWC
0.13% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.12% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.12% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.12% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.11% China 25 iS, FXI
0.11% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.11% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.09% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.08% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.08% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.07% South Africa Index, EZA
0.05% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.05% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.04% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.03% Energy Global, IXC
0.03% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.00% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.02% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.02% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.03% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.03% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.05% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.05% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.06% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.07% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.08% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.10% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.11% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.11% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.11% India PS, PIN
-0.12% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.12% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.12% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.13% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.13% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.13% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.14% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.15% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.17% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.18% Australia Index, EWA
-0.18% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.20% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.21% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.21% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.23% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.24% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.24% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.25% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.28% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.29% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.30% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.31% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.35% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.37% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.37% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.45% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.46% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.47% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.47% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.50% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.52% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.52% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.52% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.60% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.61% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.61% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.62% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.66% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.71% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.77% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.83% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.84% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.86% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.87% Networking, IGN
-0.94% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.97% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-1.07% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.07% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.09% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
