Wednesday, January 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web
Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading again today is a solidly higher U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies.
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The commodity futures markets are looking to have a rough day today as the U.S. dollar is starting out the week in strong fashion. If the U.S. dollar index continues to rebound, many commodity futures markets will likely continue to feel selling pressure in the near term.”–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes, but trading has turned choppy and more sideways.
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,135.00 and then at last week’s low of 1,127.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the January high of 1,147.90 and then at 1,150.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,126.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,891.00 and then at the contract high of 1,899.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,870.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1,857.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,853.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,600 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday’s low of 10,550. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,650 and then at Tuesday’s contract high of 10,680. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,556
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are higher in early trading today. The stronger U.S. dollar is giving bonds and notes a lift today. Bulls have gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum recently.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 8/32 and then at 117 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at this week’s high of 117 27/32 and then at 118 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 25/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32–lifetime high
122 21/32–Previous Month’s high
118 22/32–100-day moving average
118 12/32–second pivot point resistance
117 27/32–previous day’s high
117 27/32–first pivot point resistance
117 9/32–pivot point
117 9/32–previous day’s close
116 27/32–4-day moving average
116 24/32–previous day’s low
116 24/32–first pivot point support
116 6/32–second pivot point support
116 5/32–9-day moving average
115 28/32–18-day moving average
114 26/32–previous month’s low
110 3/32–lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 117.17.0 and then at 117.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.03.5 and then at 117.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.01.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32–lifetime high
119 31/32–previous month’s high
117 25/32–second pivot point resistance
117 17/32–previous day’s high
117 15/32–first pivot point resistance
117 6/32–pivot point
117 4/32–previous day’s close
117 1/32–100-day moving average
116 30/32–previous day’s low
116 28/32–4-day moving average
116 28/32–first pivot point support
116 19/32–second pivot point support
116 15/32–9-day moving average
116 4/32–18-day moving average
114 28/32–previous month’s low
110 29/32–lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading today. The bulls are gaining fresh upside near-term technical momentum this week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 78.38 and then at the January high of 78.59. Shorter-term support is seen at 78.00 and then at the overnight low of 77.67. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.99. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The March Euro is solidly lower in early electronic trading and hit a fresh five-month low. Bears this week have gained solid downside near-term technical momentum. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4100 and then at 1.4050. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4200 and then at 1.4250. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4291. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today, as the U.S. dollar index is stronger. Trading has turned choppy. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,135.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,141.70. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,127.30 and then at $1,125.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,134.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. Bulls are fading. In February crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $78.50 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $79.03. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $77.60 and then more sell stops just below support at $77.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $77.41. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower again in overnight trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage in grains. The key “outside markets” are in a bearish posture today, as the U.S. dollar is stronger, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes are weaker. Significant to serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted in the grain futures markets recently. Market fundamentals in the grains are deemed more near-term bearish.
