The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,377.51) fell 1.22% on Thursday and is now down 6.02% since 9/14/12, based on closing prices. SPX fell below its lowest lows of the previous 13 weeks, down to its lowest level since 8/3/12.
The technical condition of the stock market does not support the excessive optimism that the bullish majority of stock investors and traders clearly exhibited over the past several months. Typically, action is followed by reaction, and so a downside shakeout or correction has produced losses for bullish investors starting from the second trading day after the latest Fed Quantitative Easing was announced on 9/13/12. The Bears have momentum on their side, at least for the short term and medium term, and perhaps beyond. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
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*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.
Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 5/17/12 when both Industrials and Transports closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months, including the critical lows of March and April, 2012. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose above its closing price highs of the previous 4-years on 10/5/12, but the Dow-Jones Transportation Average has remained relatively weak, substantially below its 2012 high, thereby demonstrating non confirmation and bearish divergence.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 11/7/11 when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA.
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Sentiment for Contrary Thinking
Investor sentiment data recently indicated alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency as the stock price indexes rose above their 2012 market highs. Elevated levels of optimism are bearish because when the majority is extremely bullish, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean, as it did during the -10% April-June 2012 downside price correction for the stock market.
The CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report for stock indexes shows smart professionals selling heavily to dumb speculators. Large commercial hedging firms enjoy an enormous inside informational advantage over speculators, who are usually wrong at major market turning points, according to Steve Briese, bullishreview.com. The current maximum bearish reading indicates that a major top is brewing and next move should be down big, possibly to SPX 1074.77, the low of 10/4/2011.
Large speculators hold a record net-long position in futures and options contracts on the NASDAQ 100, according to the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report. Large Speculators, which are mainly hedge funds, are trend-followers, and their aggregate position usually becomes extreme near market reversals.
SentimentTrader.com notes that 67% of the “dumb money” is bullish, compared to 29% of the “smart money”. At such readings in the past, the stock market suffered a 3% to 8% downside correction spread out over a few weeks.
Put/Call Ratios fell to a record low in September on the CBOE.
Market Vane’s Bullish Consensus survey shows extreme optimism. The percentage of stock market bulls surged to 70% in September, the highest since June 2007.
AAII Sentiment shows that individual investors were recently extremely bullish. As of 8/23/12, there were 41.96% Bulls and 25.87% Bears. This was the most extreme optimism since 3/29/12, a few days before the SPX high close on 4/2/2012 and the beginning of a 10% downside correction.
Investors Intelligence Sentiment confirmed that stock market newsletter advisors were recently extremely bullish. As of 9/19/12, there were 54.2% Bulls and 24.5% Bears. That was the highest percentage of Bulls since 2/15/12 and the second highest since 54.9% Bulls on 5/4/11, just 2 days after the SPX peak for 2011 and the beginning of a 22% downside correction.
Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index showed that the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of the shortest-term stock market timers jumped to 53.1% in August, up from previous peaks at 47.0% in July and 42.1% in May. “Watch out for a correction — or worse. The odds of a stock market correction are now quite elevated,” according to Mark Hulbert.
Corporate insiders are extremely bearish. Insiders sold 5.97 shares for each share bought in September–up from 1.6-to-1 in May 2012, up from a low of 1.04-to-1 in October 2011, and up from a long-term average of 2.25-to-1. For Nasdaq-listed stocks, insiders sold 6.17 shares for each share bought. This data is compiled by Vickers Weekly Insider Report, published by Argus Research. Reporting for MarketWatch.com, Mark Hulbert wrote, “To be sure, the stock market didn’t decline in September, notwithstanding the insiders’ selling. But, since historically the insiders have been more right than wrong, it seems risky to bet that the market will continue to escape the bearish implication of their behavior…. Note carefully that the insiders’ bearish behavior doesn’t necessarily mean the bull market is now over. However, to the extent the insiders turn out to be as right as they were on other recent occasions when their behavior was as lopsided on the sell side, we should be prepared for a notable market decline.” Separately, data provided by Bloomberg shows 40 sales for every buy by insiders of S&P 500 companies.
NYSE Margin Debt rose $30 billion to $315 billion in September, the highest level since March 2011, a few weeks before the highest price for the S&P 500 for the year 2011. Stocks may be vulnerable to forced selling if stock prices fall significantly.
NYSE Short Interest fell by more than 884 million shares from June to August, a decline of 6%. This source of short-covering, potential demand for stocks has diminished.
The ICI reported $62.6 billion has been withdrawn from domestic equity mutual funds so far in 2012. This is another confirmation that supply is greater than demand for stocks.
VIX Fear Index has been fluctuating near 5-year lows from July into November, suggesting bullish complacency. VIX fell to 13.30 intraday on 8/17/12, its lowest level in more than 5 years, since 6/20/07. VIX fell from an intraday peak of 27.73 on 6/4/12. This large drop suggests a shift from worried concern to bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1434.09, 50-day SMA
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1380.72, 200-day SMA
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and TLT’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 119.87, 118.05, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and IEF’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 106.59, 106.42, 105.84, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 108.99, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/25/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JNK/LQD fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA has remained consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/1/12.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically bullish on 10/10/12 when the TIP/IEF 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA. TIP/IEF remains above both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/2/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.86, 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.36, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 10/15/12, confirming a loss of upside momentum. DBA turned systematically neutral on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. Price remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/7/12, confirming its preexisting bearish trend. USO turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. Support 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/2/12, confirming its preexisting corrective trend. GLD turned systematically neutral on 10/23/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. GLD price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. Support: 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 167.28, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) looks choppy/neutral. GDX/GLD turned systematically neutral on 11/5/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since 10/19/12.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/2/12, confirming its preexisting corrective trend. SLV fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/19/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV has been trading around its 200-day SMA. SLV price 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/1/12. Support 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 31.52, 32.23, 33.23, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/7/12, confirming its preexisting corrective trend. SLV/GLD fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/19/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. SLV/GLD has been trading around its 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV/GLD 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/9/12.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 9 weeks on 11/5/12. JJC price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/22/12 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/19/12. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, and so this price weakness may be taken as a warning about economic conditions ahead.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.29% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
3.89% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
3.59% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
2.59% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
4.39% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
2.94% , DELL , DELL
2.72% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
0.80% , EXC , EXELON CORP
0.56% , NVDA , NVIDIA
1.52% , PPL , PPL
0.95% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
1.38% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
1.44% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
0.71% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
0.54% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.81% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
0.79% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
1.06% , CBS , CBS CORP.
0.41% , MKC , MCCORMICK
0.08% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.24% , BA , BOEING
0.22% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
0.45% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
0.06% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.35% , AEE , AMEREN
0.43% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
0.20% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
0.12% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.51% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-3.81% , HAR , Harman International
-3.98% , AVP , AVON
-5.10% , KSS , KOHLS
-4.87% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-4.75% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
-5.65% , MBI , MBIA
-5.32% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-1.60% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-5.34% , COH , COACH
-2.67% , OMC , OMNICOM
-2.66% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-1.47% , LLY , ELI LILLY
-2.37% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-1.99% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-3.30% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-1.55% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.41% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.25% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
-1.57% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
-4.11% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
-3.63% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-2.04% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
-3.37% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
-1.70% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-2.95% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-2.69% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
-3.13% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-5.08% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-0.77% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.98% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
-1.92% , MDP , MEREDITH
-1.32% , RSP , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.28% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
1.81% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.84% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.57% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.27% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.23% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.21% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.11% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.08% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.14% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.16% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.32% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.38% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.40% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.45% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.47% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.50% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.58% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.58% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.60% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.81% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.83% India PS, PIN
-0.85% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.89% Australia Index, EWA
-0.90% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.96% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.01% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.03% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.07% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.10% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.17% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.19% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.20% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.21% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.22% Austria Index, EWO
-1.24% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.24% Dividend International, PID
-1.31% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.32% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.32% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-1.33% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.35% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.36% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-1.36% Networking, IGN
-1.37% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.37% Canada Index, EWC
-1.40% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.40% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.46% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.46% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.47% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.50% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-1.52% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.53% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.58% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.58% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.61% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.62% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-1.64% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.67% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.68% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.70% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.73% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.76% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.81% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-1.87% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.88% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-1.89% Global 100, IOO
-1.91% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.91% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.91% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.92% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.94% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.94% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.95% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.97% MidCap Russell, IWR
-2.01% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.02% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-2.03% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-2.04% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.07% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-2.07% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-2.08% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-2.08% Italy Index, EWI
-2.10% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-2.10% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-2.12% France Index, EWQ
-2.12% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-2.13% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-2.17% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-2.18% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.19% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-2.20% Spain Index, EWP
-2.20% Water Resources, PHO
-2.21% Germany Index, EWG
-2.21% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-2.22% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-2.24% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-2.26% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-2.26% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-2.27% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-2.27% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-2.27% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-2.28% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-2.35% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-2.35% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-2.36% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-2.36% Mexico Index, EWW
-2.41% Energy Global, IXC
-2.43% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-2.46% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-2.48% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-2.49% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.50% Technology SPDR, XLK
-2.50% Value VIPERs, VTV
-2.51% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-2.53% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-2.55% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-2.56% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-2.61% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-2.61% Energy SPDR, XLE
-2.63% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.64% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.69% Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.70% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.75% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.78% Energy DJ, IYE
-2.79% Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.80% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-2.82% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-2.84% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-2.89% Russia MV, RSX
-2.92% Financial DJ US, IYF
-3.09% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-3.20% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-3.34% Financial SPDR, XLF
-3.95% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-4.01% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-4.01% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-4.15% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
