S&P 500 Broke Down Below the Lows of the Previous 7 Trading Days

S&P 500 broke down below the lows of the previous 7 trading days.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,300.67) fell 4.22 points 0.32% on Thursday, July 28, 2011. SPX broke down below the lows of the previous 7 trading days and fell further below its 20- and 50-day simple moving averages. Based on closing prices only, SPX broke down below the closing price lows of the previous 4 weeks, matching the breakdowns of the Dow-Jones Industrials and Transports. All three are confirming short-term downtrends.

As of the close on July 21, 2011, the Dow Theory suggested a divergence and non-confirmation as the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed above its closing prices of the previous 2 months but the Dow-Jones Transportation Average failed to confirm a similar breakout above its recent trading range.

For the medium term, a complex Dow Theory Secondary Reaction probably is still unfolding during the historically weak, “Sell in May, and go away” season.

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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
15.20% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
14.13% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
8.49% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
5.84% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
5.88% , BC , BRUNSWICK
6.34% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
2.59% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
2.96% , DYN , DYNEGY
2.59% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
4.52% , EFX , EQUIFAX
3.51% , DLX , DELUXE
4.15% , AFL , AFLAC
2.95% , GPS , GAP
0.81% , NY , Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
1.16% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
1.93% , JWN , NORDSTROM
4.29% , AMP , Ameriprise Financial Inc.
2.65% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
1.95% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
1.79% , TMK , TORCHMARK
1.92% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
0.97% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
1.75% , NCR , NCR
4.63% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
0.92% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
0.95% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
0.97% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
1.96% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
1.04% , OMC , OMNICOM
1.98% , NKE , NIKE STK B
0.09% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
1.14% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
0.15% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-15.89% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-16.28% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-5.70% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
-7.97% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
-8.75% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
-7.22% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
-6.50% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-0.65% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-2.77% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
-0.45% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-3.93% , AVP , AVON
-4.34% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-0.41% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-3.48% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
-1.18% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-3.64% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-7.16% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-1.05% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-0.57% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-3.15% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-2.01% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
-3.53% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-0.66% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
-2.80% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
-2.86% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-2.34% , T , AT&T Corp., T
-2.76% , PWER , POWER ONE
-0.12% , IGV , Software, IGV
-2.09% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-0.74% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
-0.51% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-2.81% , CR , CRANE
-4.06% , LM , LEGG MASON
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9 Major U.S. Stock Sectors
ranked in order of long-term relative strength
Major trend rankings are available by subscription–
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below 7-week lows on 7/12/11 after trading with a bearish bias since peaking on 10/14/10. The Ratio remains below the 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price broke down below 14-week lows on 6/23/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 4-month lows on 7/19/11. The Ratio has been trading with a bearish bias since peaking on 11/27/07, so this is a major long-term bearish trend. The Ratio remains below the 200-day SMA, below the 50-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price broke down below 14-week lows on 6/23/11.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio appears to be stalling out below its high set on 1/18/11. Long term, the trend remains bullish. Absolute price peaked on 5/2/11 at 2,887.75 (intraday) and appears to be turning down again below that high.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 4 months on 7/25/11, suggesting a medium-term recovery. But OEX/SPX fell below 28-year lows on 5/26/11, confirming its preexisting bearish long-term major trend.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below 6-week lows on 7/27/11. IWM/SPY appears bearish for the short term.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below 5-month lows and key SMAs on 7/28/11. MDY/SPY appears bearish for the medium term.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 7/25/11, suggesting a short-term price pullback. DBA may be forming a bearish Descending Triangle Top Reversal Pattern since its high at 35.58 set on 3/4/11. Support 32.35, 32.23, 31.65, 31.46. Resistance 33.42, 34.83, and 35.58.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 7 trading days and closed further below its 20-, 50-, and 200-day simple moving averages, suggesting a short-term downtrend. Support 36.93 and 35.14. Resistance 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absorbed minor profit taking and closed higher for the day on 7/28/11. The dominant trend remains bullish. In a world of too much debt, weak currencies, and self-serving politicians, investors around the globe seek the safety of gold as the only forever-true money. Support: 154.10, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: none.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative (to the Gold bullion ETF) Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell further below its 50- and 200-day SMAs on 7/28/11. GDX/GLD fell below 27-month lows on 6/17/11, which was a bearish indication for the long term. The Ratio is down substantially since its peak on 4/8/11, and the main trend remains bearish.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below 4-day lows on 7/28/11, suggesting a possible short-term price pullback. Longer term, Silver appears to have emerged on the bullish side of a 2-month Triangle Consolidation. Support 37.23, 34.02, and 31.97. Resistance: 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below 6-day lows on 7/28/11, suggesting a possible short-term price pullback. The SLV/GLD Ratio remains in a bullish position relative to 50- and 200-day SMAs.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC ) consolidated gains after rising above the highs of the previous 3 months on 7/19/11, confirming a preexisting medium-term uptrend. JJC has been in a bullish trend since bottoming at 51.13 on 5/11/11. Strength in Copper suggests confidence in the economic outlook, while Weakness suggests doubts about the future. Support 56.92, 55.50, 52.93, 52.12, 51.13. Resistance: 59.06, 60.04, and 61.69.

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) closed above the highs of the previous 5 trading days on 7/28/11, suggesting a short-term price uptrend. Still, the U.S. debt ceiling blame game in Washington may offer an unquantifiable risk for the financial markets. Technically, larger trends still appear bullish since TLT bottomed at 88.14 on 2/9/11. Support 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 97.90, 102.27, 106.10, 107.05, and 109.32.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) crossed below its 20- and 50-day simple moving averages on 7/27/11 and remains below its 200-day SMA. JNK/LQD broke down below 9-month lows on 6/16/11, thereby confirming a major downtrend.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose above the highs of the previous 10 weeks on 7/28/11, suggesting a medium-term uptrend. TIP/IEF is rising above key SMAs, 20, 50 and 200 days. This means fixed-income investors currently prefer the inflation-protected TIPs over the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF).

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below the lows of the previous 11 weeks on 7/26/11, again confirming a significant downtrend. In addition, on 7/21/11, UUP fell below the lower boundary line of a Symmetrical Triangle Consolidation Pattern from the low at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.01 and 20.84. Resistance 21.74, 21.86, and 22.21.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 49.5% Bulls versus 21.5% Bears as of 7/27/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio rose to 2.30, which suggests bullish complacency when compared to 20-year range of 0.41 to 3.74, a median of 1.56, and a mean of 1.64.

VIX Fear Index jumped to 23.99 intraday on 7/28/11, up from a low of 15.12 on 7/1/11. This is the highest level of fear in 8 weeks, but it is still well below the 31.28 peak on 3/16/11. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months.

As of the close on June 6, 2011, the Dow Theory confirmed a Secondary Reaction (a significant downside correction) for the general stock market, as the Dow Industrials and Transports both closed below 10-week lows. Previously, as of June 1, 2011, the Dow Theory gave a warning of a significant downside correction for the general stock market, as the Dow Industrials and Transports both closed below 5-week lows.

As of the close on July 1, 2011, the Dow Theory suggested a divergence and non-confirmation as the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above all previous closing price highs but the Dow-Jones Industrial Average failed to confirm.

As of the close on July 21, 2011, the Dow Theory suggested a divergence and non-confirmation as the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed above its closing prices of the previous 2 months but the Dow-Jones Transportation Average failed to confirm a similar breakout above its recent trading range.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,300.67) fell 4.22 points 0.32% on Thursday, July 28, 2011.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.50, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1295.92, low of 7/18/11
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.96% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.46% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.14% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.77% Singapore Index, EWS
0.71% China 25 iS, FXI
0.43% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.41% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.38% South Korea Index, EWY
0.38% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.36% Mexico Index, EWW
0.35% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.30% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.23% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.22% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.20% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.20% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.20% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.20% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.20% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.19% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.17% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.17% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.15% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.15% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.13% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.13% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.13% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.12% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.11% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.10% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.10% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.09% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.08% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.08% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.07% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.06% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.00% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.02% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.03% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.06% Dividend International, PID
-0.08% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.09% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.10% Spain Index, EWP
-0.11% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.13% Canada Index, EWC
-0.14% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.15% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.15% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.16% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.16% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.17% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.18% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.19% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.19% Global 100, IOO
-0.19% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.19% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.21% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.21% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.21% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.23% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.23% Russia MV, RSX
-0.23% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.24% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.26% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.27% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.28% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.28% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.28% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.28% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.28% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.29% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.29% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.29% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.30% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.31% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.31% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.31% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.31% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.33% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.33% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.34% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.34% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.34% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.35% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.37% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.38% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.39% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.41% Networking, IGN
-0.41% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.41% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.41% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.42% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.44% Italy Index, EWI
-0.45% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.45% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.46% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.47% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.47% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.48% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.48% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.48% India PS, PIN
-0.49% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.50% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.50% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.51% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.52% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.53% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.53% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.54% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.54% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.55% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.55% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.57% Energy Global, IXC
-0.57% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.58% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.58% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.58% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.59% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.61% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.62% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.63% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.63% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.63% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.64% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.64% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.65% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.68% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-0.73% Water Resources, PHO
-0.77% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.81% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.85% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.86% Australia Index, EWA
-1.05% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.10% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.13% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.18% France Index, EWQ
-1.31% Austria Index, EWO
-1.39% Germany Index, EWG
-1.42% South Africa Index, EZA