S&P 500 fell 0.75% in April

Technology sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below its 50-day SMA.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,397.91) fell 5.45 points or 0.39% on Monday. NYSE volume fell 9%.

The S&P 500 fell 0.75% in the month of April, which was the first down month since November.

The weekly MACD Histogram based on the SPX is approaching zero, illustrating a clear deceleration of the uptrend.

Seasonal tendencies for the few days at the end of one month and the beginning of the next month are generally bullish, if only by a small amount. Declining stock prices in this time window reveal underlying market weakness.

SPX has traded in a 4.57% range, between intraday extremes of 1,357.38 and 1,422.38, for 7 weeks, since 3/8/12. The extremes of this range may be considered support and resistance.

The Reward to Risk Ratio for the stock market appears unattractive.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Available by subscription only (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1406.64, high of 4/27/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1384.15, 50-day SMA
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1357.38, low of 4/11/2012
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% R of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1337.35, low of 2/10/2012
1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% R of 2011-12 range
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1275.06, 200-day SMA
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% R of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% R of 2011-12 range
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 119.14, 120.91, 121.64, 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 105.80, 106.49 and 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) could stay longer in its neutral trading range of the past 5 months.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned down after 3/19/12. Systematically, TIP/IEF remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) remains systematically neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.23, 22.47, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 4/23/12. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 17 months on 4/30/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below its 50-day SMA on 4/3/12, turning systematically neutral. USO remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 38.31, 36.67, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.89, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below its lows of the previous 12 weeks and fell further below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 4/4/12. Systematically, GLD turned bearish on 4/17/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Support: 156.58, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 4/23/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Systematically, GDX/GLD remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/25/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/30/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. SLV/GLD remains below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) bounced over the past 5 days but could soon encounter resistance. JJC fell below its lows of the past 3 months on 4/16/12, confirming a downtrend for the medium term. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
20.48% , SUN , SUNOCO
2.89% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
0.12% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
4.91% , HAR , Harman International
1.28% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
2.19% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
0.60% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.37% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
1.92% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
2.80% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
0.41% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.05% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
2.03% , MRK , MERCK & CO
1.19% , KFT , Kraft Foods Inc.
0.28% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
1.89% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
2.15% , NBR , NABORS
2.04% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
0.55% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
2.95% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
0.68% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
1.02% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
1.37% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.65% , NI , NISOURCE
0.09% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.39% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.51% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
0.56% , AES , AES
0.75% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
0.64% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
0.17% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
0.46% , CLX , CLOROX
0.13% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.94% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-1.21% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
-0.56% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
-8.13% , HUM , HUMANA
-0.86% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-3.26% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-0.31% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-0.70% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-0.63% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.84% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-1.02% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-1.37% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.68% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-3.36% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-1.03% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.34% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
-0.46% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-0.20% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-5.00% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-0.51% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
-0.91% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-4.30% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-2.50% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-0.92% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.71% , WAG , WALGREEN
-3.21% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-0.93% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.90% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.86% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
-1.03% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-3.04% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-1.81% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
-0.64% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.37% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.62% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.60% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.51% India PS, PIN
0.45% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.44% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.41% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.41% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.39% Energy DJ, IYE
0.39% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.38% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.37% Austria Index, EWO
0.35% South Africa Index, EZA
0.34% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.33% Energy Global, IXC
0.31% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.30% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.29% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.28% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.23% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.21% Sweden Index, EWD
0.20% Russia MV, RSX
0.20% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.17% Belgium Index, EWK
0.16% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.15% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.15% China 25 iS, FXI
0.14% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.12% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.10% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.09% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.07% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.03% South Korea Index, EWY
0.03% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.05% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.06% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.08% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.08% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.11% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.11% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.11% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.14% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.15% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.19% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.19% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.20% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.20% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.21% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.22% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.22% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.23% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.24% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.26% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.26% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.28% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.29% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.29% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.31% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.32% Canada Index, EWC
-0.32% Dividend International, PID
-0.33% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.33% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.34% Global 100, IOO
-0.34% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.34% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.35% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.35% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.36% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.37% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.37% Networking, IGN
-0.42% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.42% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.43% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.44% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.44% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.44% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.44% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.45% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.46% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.46% Australia Index, EWA
-0.47% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.48% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.50% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.51% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.51% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.51% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.54% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.54% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.54% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.55% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.57% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.57% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.57% Germany Index, EWG
-0.57% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.58% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.58% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.62% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.63% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.63% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.67% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.68% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.68% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.70% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.70% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.71% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.74% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.74% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.78% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.85% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.85% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.86% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.87% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.88% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.90% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.90% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.91% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.92% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.93% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.93% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.94% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.94% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.95% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.96% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.99% Italy Index, EWI
-1.02% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.03% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.03% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.05% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.10% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.10% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.16% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.17% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.21% Water Resources, PHO
-1.24% France Index, EWQ
-1.24% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.37% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.51% Spain Index, EWP
-1.76% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB