Consumer Discretionary stock sector price rose above the highs of the previous 6 months.

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) fell below the lows of the previous 2 trading days, thereby suggesting a minor pullback.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below the lows of the previous 7 trading days, thereby suggesting a minor pullback.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) rose above the high of the previous 3 months, confirming a short-term rally.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,308.04) rose 1.11% on Wednesday to its highest closing price in 5 months, confirming a medium-term rally.

Despite the recent persistent price advance, SPX still demonstrates relatively low short-term upside momentum.

SPX appears overbought and overdue for a correction. With the majority of investors already bullish, and therefore already invested in the market, stocks may be vulnerable to a downside shakeout.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio remains neutral. The Ratio rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/17/12, and rose above its 200-day SMA on 1/18/12, but the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 12/30/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite also is neutral, correcting and consolidating since peaking at 2887.75 intraday on 5/2/11. The price 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/12/11.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/17/12, turning neutral. BKF/SPY remains bearishly below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/18/12, turning neutral. EEM/SPY remains bearishly below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 years on 1/6/12, reconfirming the preexisting major bearish trend. EFA/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) has eased moderately lower since 1/4/12. Still, OEX/SPX remains above its rising 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back above is 50-day SMA on 1/10/12. IWM/SPY has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 7/6/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/11/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back above is 50-day SMA on 1/18/12. MDY/SPY has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/1/11, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/24/11.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 70.2% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 29.8% Bears as of 1/18/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. This represents average bullish sentiment: the 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.

VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 5-months on 1/10/12, hitting 20.05 intraday. That is down from recent peaks of 30.91 on 12/8/11, 37.83 on 11/1/11, 46.88 on 10/4/11, and 48.00 on 8/8/11. This drop indicates a shift away from fear and toward confidence, which, according to Humphrey Bancroft Neill’s Art of Contrary Thinking, may be bearish. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1308.11, high of 1/18/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.60, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) fell below the lows of the previous 2 trading days on 1/18/12, thereby suggesting a minor pullback. TLT rose above its 50-day SMA and above the highs of the previous 8 trading days on 1/13/12, indicating renewed upside momentum for the short term. TLT remains above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend for the longer term. Support 119.24, 117.57, 115.80, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) fell below the lows of the previous 2 trading days on 1/18/12, thereby suggesting a minor pullback. IEF rose above its 50-day SMA and above the highs of the previous 8 trading days on 1/13/12, indicating renewed upside momentum for the short term. IEF remains above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend. Support 105.09, 104.45, 104.25, 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.04 and 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/18/12 but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 1/10/12 and remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below the lows of the previous 7 trading days on 1/18/12, thereby suggesting a minor pullback. UUP rose above the high of the previous 12 months on 1/13/12, thereby reconfirming its bullish major trend. UUP rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/11 and rose above its 200-day SMA on 11/9/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 22.24, 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 1/12/12, resuming its bearish major trend. DBA remains bearishly below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) has been correcting and consolidating over the past 10 trading days. USO broke out above the highs of the previous 7 months on 1/4/12, thereby confirming a major uptrend. Support 37.64, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.96, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) remains neutral. GLD rose above the highs of the previous 4 weeks on 1/17/12 and above its 200-day SMA on 1/10/12, indicating a minor uptrend. GLD remains below its 50-day SMA. Support: 158.01, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 161.65, 162.07, 165.53, 170.80, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years on 1/18/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. GDX/GLD remains bearishly below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) remains bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. SLV fell below the lows of the previous 11 months on 12/29/11. SLV crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/8/11 and crossed below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.63, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 29.84, 32.53, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/28/11, confirming a bearish trend. SLV/GLD remains bearishly below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) rose above the high of the previous 3 months on 1/18/12 and rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/10/12. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
10.14% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
11.84% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
15.48% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
5.08% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
9.88% , ALTR , ALTERA
11.55% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
5.83% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
8.30% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
5.92% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
6.75% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
5.67% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
5.70% , ADI , ANALOG DEVICES
5.85% , XLNX , XILINX
6.78% , ADSK , AUTODESK
6.79% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
0.31% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
0.91% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.21% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
4.17% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
2.51% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
2.17% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
0.89% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
1.85% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
3.51% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
4.19% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
1.71% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
3.98% , SMH , Semiconductor H, SMH
5.23% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
2.05% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
4.77% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
1.75% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
4.44% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
5.87% , PHM , PULTE HOMES

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.36% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-6.55% , STT , STATE STREET
-3.19% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-3.48% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-1.91% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
-2.61% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
-1.58% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-1.92% , WAT , WATERS
-2.69% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-3.29% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-2.72% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-1.69% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
-0.62% , EBAY , EBAY
-4.67% , DYN , DYNEGY
-0.36% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
-1.05% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-1.71% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-0.94% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-0.37% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-1.64% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
-0.83% , AEE , AMEREN
-0.72% , PCG , PG&E
-1.28% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.57% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-2.16% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
-0.78% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-0.17% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-2.25% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-1.07% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-0.32% , TXT , TEXTRON
-0.78% , KR , KROGER
-1.21% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.15% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
5.93% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
5.08% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
4.17% Indonesia MV, IDX
3.69% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
3.52% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
3.52% Mexico Index, EWW
3.34% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
3.21% South Africa Index, EZA
3.05% Switzerland Index, EWL
2.97% Russia MV, RSX
2.87% Brazil Index, EWZ
2.82% Latin Am 40, ILF
2.74% Sweden Index, EWD
2.59% Austria Index, EWO
2.52% Emerging Markets, EEM
2.52% Netherlands Index, EWN
2.46% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.41% Networking, IGN
2.38% Germany Index, EWG
2.32% France Index, EWQ
2.15% European VIPERs, VGK
2.14% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
2.05% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
2.04% EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.04% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
2.02% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
2.02% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.01% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.97% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.92% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.92% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.86% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.86% China 25 iS, FXI
1.85% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.85% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.84% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.83% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.82% India PS, PIN
1.78% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.78% Australia Index, EWA
1.77% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.77% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.76% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.76% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.75% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.73% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.72% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.69% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.68% EAFE Index, EFA
1.68% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.67% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.66% Energy DJ, IYE
1.66% Belgium Index, EWK
1.65% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.65% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.65% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.64% South Korea Index, EWY
1.64% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.63% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.63% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.61% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.60% Italy Index, EWI
1.58% Water Resources, PHO
1.58% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.58% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.53% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.53% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.52% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.51% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.48% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.47% Energy Global, IXC
1.46% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.45% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.42% Dividend International, PID
1.42% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.42% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.41% Global 100, IOO
1.39% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.38% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.38% Singapore Index, EWS
1.37% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.35% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.34% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.33% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.33% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.32% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.27% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.26% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.25% Canada Index, EWC
1.24% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.23% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.21% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.20% Japan Index, EWJ
1.19% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.16% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.14% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.13% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.13% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.13% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.12% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.11% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.06% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.04% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.01% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.97% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.94% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.91% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.90% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.81% Spain Index, EWP
0.80% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.78% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.70% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.69% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.66% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.65% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.65% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.58% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.57% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.56% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.56% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.54% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.54% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.43% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.39% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.28% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.22% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.10% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.05% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.04% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.00% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.03% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.08% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.13% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.17% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.20% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.31% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.07% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.21% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT