U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 6/12/13. Price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 6/3/13.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) and Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) both fell below 6-month price lows on 6/12/13 and remain bearish.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/12/13–an obvious sign of weakness. MDY/SPY has been systematically neutral since it broke down below its 50-day SMA on 6/3/13. Absolute price whipsawed down below its 50-day SMA on 6/12/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 6/12/13 when it crossed below the 50-day SMA.

U.S. stocks started the day on Wednesday higher but quickly reversed to the downside and continued to erode most of the day. Prices closed below their ranges of the previous 3 trading days and very near the lows of the day. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,612.52) finished down 0.84% and Nasdaq fell 1.06%. The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE broke down below its lows of the previous 7 weeks and below its 50-day SMA. NYSE Volume fell, down 5% from the previous trading day, suggesting less selling pressure on stocks.

The bulls appear to have lost control of the recent minor rally attempt, and the bears may be taking charge–GLOBALLY.

The S&P 500 fell 3.6% from 5/21/13 to 6/5/13, based on closing prices. That was the largest down wave since last September-November. It also was the longest in time, lasting 10 trading days. The magnitude and duration of that price decline might be telling us that this time is different from all previous minor price corrections since last November.

Despite months of technical divergences and a clear loss of upside momentum in recent weeks, the great majority of investors remain bullishly complacent. The Bullish Majority assumes (hopes) that the stock market will again find its old bullish resilience, that bullish momentum will again “feed on itself”, and the “Buy-the-Dip” mentality won’t quit until the Fed quits its “highly accommodative monetary policy”.

Following a persistent trend, investors typically overestimate the market’s ability to continue in that same trend direction, while underestimating risks of trend reversal and the natural tendency of all markets to move both up and down, going from overbought to oversold, just as they always have.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market most recently on 5/17/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average both closed at new price highs. On 5/28/13, however, the Industrial Average rose to a higher high without confirmation by the Transportation Average, which made a lower high.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 4/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, QQQ has underperformed SPY since 4/10/12, and that Relative Strength downtrend will probably resume.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/11/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 6-month low on 6/12/13.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/11/13, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 7-month low on 6/12/13, confirming its bearish major trend.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 9 months on 6/11/13. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 6/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/28/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new price high intraday on 5/22/13, but that high was rejected by the market.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/12/13–an obvious sign of weakness. MDY/SPY has been systematically neutral since it broke down below its 50-day SMA on 6/3/13. Absolute price whipsawed down below its 50-day SMA on 6/12/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 6/12/13. Price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 6/3/13, when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.96, 22.69, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price has been consolidating losses in a choppy, sideways trend for 4 years, whipsawing around both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 4/18/13. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.59, 34.86, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 130.51. Resistance: 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/11/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/7/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) is systematically bearish. Price has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 4/4/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
41.12% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
11.34% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
2.14% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
3.81% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.92% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
1.69% , MAS , MASCO
2.30% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.11% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.96% , PKI , PERKINELMER
0.40% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
0.66% , ECL , ECOLAB
0.52% , MKC , MCCORMICK
0.16% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.12% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.89% , WPO , Washington Post
0.38% , BCR , C R BARD
0.73% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
0.20% , TMK , TORCHMARK
0.66% , NUE , NUCOR
0.80% , PX , PRAXAIR
0.81% , VFC , VF
0.61% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
1.59% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.06% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
0.32% , CSX , CSX
0.69% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
0.24% , AZO , AUTOZONE
0.06% , APA , APACHE
0.83% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
0.27% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.27% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
0.04% , PFE , PFIZER
0.08% , HYG , Bond High-Yield Corporate, HYG
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.39% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
-2.30% , HSP , HOSPIRA
-2.88% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-3.50% , XLNX , XILINX
-0.59% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
-0.78% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-3.90% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-4.69% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-2.70% , LM , LEGG MASON
-2.17% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.07% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-3.05% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-2.66% , AVP , AVON
-2.75% , XRX , XEROX
-2.00% , NE , NOBLE
-3.73% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-2.40% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-2.99% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-0.93% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.93% , ADI.O , ANALOG DEVICES
-0.78% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-2.46% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
-1.51% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
-0.85% , VXF , Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
-0.47% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-1.23% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.94% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-1.17% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-2.48% , CBS , CBS CORP.
-0.61% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
-0.91% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
-2.31% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-2.10% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.81% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.21% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
1.02% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.82% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.75% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.71% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.53% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.46% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.27% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.27% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.27% , Spain Index, EWP
0.16% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.12% , India PS, PIN
0.12% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.10% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.08% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.07% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.06% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.00% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.00% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.04% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.09% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.09% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.12% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.12% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.12% , France Index, EWQ
-0.17% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.19% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.20% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.23% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.24% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.25% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.32% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.34% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.34% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.35% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.36% , Dividend International, PID
-0.36% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.37% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.41% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.45% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.47% , Global 100, IOO
-0.49% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.49% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.50% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.52% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.52% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.53% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.54% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.57% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.57% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.57% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.57% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.58% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.61% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.61% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.61% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.61% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.65% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.66% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.67% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.68% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.69% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.69% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.69% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.70% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.71% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.71% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.72% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.75% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.75% , Networking, IGN
-0.76% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.77% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.78% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.78% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.79% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.79% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.81% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.81% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.81% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.82% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.82% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.82% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.83% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.84% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.85% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.85% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.85% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.86% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.86% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.87% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.88% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.88% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.89% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.90% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.91% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.92% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.93% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.93% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.94% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.96% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.96% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.96% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.96% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.97% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.98% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.98% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.98% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.99% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.01% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.02% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.02% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.05% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.07% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.07% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.07% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.07% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.07% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-1.08% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.10% , Canada Index, EWC
-1.11% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.16% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.16% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.23% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.23% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.30% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.36% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.37% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.37% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.38% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.43% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.46% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-1.69% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.78% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.81% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.84% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.87% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.92% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.95% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.17% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1687.18, intraday high of 5/22/2013
1674.21, intraday high of 5/28/2013
1648.69, intraday high of 6/10/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1610.55, 50-day SMA
1598.23, low of 6/6/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1498.49, 200-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009