The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,284.59) rose 42.59 points or 3.43% on Thursday, October 27, 2011. SPX price rose above the highs of the past 12 weeks, penetrated substantial technical resistance from 1246.73 to 1258.07, and rose above its 200-day SMA. Volume increased significantly.

All of this confirms the 18-day uptrend. The SPX medium-term trend is only neutral, however, with the 50-day SMA still significantly below the 200-day SMA.

Because the advance is 18 trading-days old, it may have developed into something larger than a minor Ripple. Secondary Reactions are significant counter-trend corrections against the Primary Tide. They can last several weeks to several months and recover a substantial proportion of the previous losses.

Longer-term indicators still are very far from confirming any change in the major Primary Tide trend.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages.
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Stock Market Indicators

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio has been correcting and consolidating gains over the past 4 weeks. The Ratio rose above previous 10-year highs on 9/23/11, reconfirming a major long-term uptrend.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 10/27/11 but is neutral with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above the highs of the past 8 weeks on 10/27/11 but is neutral with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 10/27/11 but is neutral with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above the highs of the past 8 weeks on 10/27/11 but is neutral with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 8 weeks on 10/27/11 but is neutral with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above the highs of the past 12 weeks on 10/27/11 but is neutral with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 6-week lows on 10/27/11, confirming a medium-term correction to the downside. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 8 weeks on 10/27/11 but is neutral with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above the highs of the past 12 weeks on 10/27/11 but is neutral with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 10/27/11 but is neutral with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above the highs of the past 12 weeks on 10/27/11 but is neutral with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 40.0% Bulls versus 37.9% Bears as of 10/26/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio rose to 1.06, up from 0.87 the previous week. The Bull/Bear Ratio has been relatively low for 10 consecutive weeks, since 8/24/11. The 20-year median is 1.56 and the mean is 1.64.

VIX Fear Index fell to 24.70 on 10/27/11, down from a high of 48.00 on 8/8/11, suggesting that fear has decreased substantially. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,284.59) Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range

S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,284.59) Potential Support
1274.24, 200-day SMA
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1256.55, high of 10/24/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1190.58, low of 10/13/2011
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price fell below the lows of the previous 8 weeks on 10/27/11 but is only neutral with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Longer term, TLT rose above all-time highs on 10/4/11, reconfirming a major uptrend. Support 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 116.82 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price fell below the lows of the previous 11 weeks on 10/27/11 but is only neutral with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Longer term, IEF rose above all-time highs on 9/22/11, reconfirming a major uptrend. Support 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) turned down on 10/25/11 following a 3-weeks bounce. Longer term, JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11, which reconfirmed a bearish major trend.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF), since making a low on 9/30/11, recovered a normal fraction of previous large losses. Longer term, TIP/IEF broke down below the lows of the previous 13-months on 9/30/11, which reconfirmed a bearish major trend, and the 50-day SMA is still far below the 200-day SMA.. This bearish long-term trend means that fixed-income investors have been choosing the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs. So, fixed-income investors may be more worried about deflation than inflation.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below the lows of the previous 8 weeks on 10/26/11, reconfirming its preexisting downside correction. Support 20.84. Resistance 21.91 and 22.63.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 10 months on 10/3/11, which reconfirmed a major long-term downtrend.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 10/25/11, extending a minor 3-weeks bounce. Longer term, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.49, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price rose above the highs of the previous 5 weeks on 10/27/11, confirming an end of a downside short-term correction. Longer term, new highs on 9/6/11 confirmed a major bull market. Support: 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 170.32, 172.20, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Investors still prefer Gold bullion over Gold Miners.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) > price rose above the highs of the previous 5 weeks on 10/27/11, confirming an end of a downside short-term correction. Longer term, SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. SLV fell back below its 50-day SMA on 9/19/11 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11. Support 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) broke out above 5-weeek highs on 10/27/11, suggesting a short-term bounce. Longer term, the SLV/GLD Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 11 months on 9/30/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend. SLV/GLD has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above the highs of the previous 5 weeks on 10/27/11, confirming a short-term upside correction. Longer term, JJC broke down below the lows of the previous 14 months on 10/5/11, confirming a bearish major trend. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.51% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
6.04% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
8.43% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
8.55% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
3.17% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
5.25% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
7.97% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
5.47% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
3.04% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
6.07% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
7.41% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
8.16% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
5.12% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
8.05% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
9.22% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
3.80% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
17.76% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
14.77% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
10.23% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
5.58% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
10.00% , SNV , SYNOVUS
3.73% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
5.97% , VWO , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
6.19% , PIN , India PS, PIN
7.56% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
5.57% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
3.53% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
5.61% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
9.25% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
3.91% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
9.55% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
16.65% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
6.53% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-18.25% , AVP , AVON
-15.35% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-4.33% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-12.27% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
-8.62% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-4.04% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-3.48% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-6.99% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-4.06% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
-2.90% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-1.96% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-2.71% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-1.75% , CLX , CLOROX
-0.44% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-3.39% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.46% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
-0.97% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-5.84% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.76% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
-1.21% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.36% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
-0.85% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
-0.81% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
-5.56% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.38% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.29% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-2.08% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-0.57% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-2.80% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-0.07% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.15% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-0.04% , NI , NISOURCE
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
9.09% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
8.43% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
8.35% Sweden Index, EWD
8.19% Austria Index, EWO
8.16% Germany Index, EWG
8.05% France Index, EWQ
7.97% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
7.61% Italy Index, EWI
7.56% Spain Index, EWP
7.47% EMU Europe Index, EZU
7.29% Australia Index, EWA
6.71% Russia MV, RSX
6.60% Financial Services DJ, IYG
6.53% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
6.27% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
6.21% South Korea Index, EWY
6.19% India PS, PIN
6.18% South Africa Index, EZA
6.18% Singapore Index, EWS
6.08% Emerging Markets, EEM
6.07% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
6.06% India Earnings WTree, EPI
6.03% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
5.97% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
5.96% Financial SPDR, XLF
5.91% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
5.87% Brazil Index, EWZ
5.86% Netherlands Index, EWN
5.80% European VIPERs, VGK
5.76% China 25 iS, FXI
5.74% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
5.72% Financials VIPERs, VFH
5.70% Indonesia MV, IDX
5.65% Belgium Index, EWK
5.61% Financial DJ US, IYF
5.61% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
5.53% EAFE Index, EFA
5.47% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
5.43% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
5.43% Materials SPDR, XLB
5.41% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
5.41% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
5.39% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
5.38% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
5.37% Malaysia Index, EWM
5.28% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
5.26% Microcap Russell, IWC
5.26% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
5.19% Water Resources, PHO
5.18% Latin Am 40, ILF
5.12% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
5.02% Mexico Index, EWW
5.01% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
5.00% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
4.95% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
4.92% Silver Trust iS, SLV
4.77% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
4.77% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
4.77% Switzerland Index, EWL
4.76% REIT Wilshire, RWR
4.75% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
4.72% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
4.62% Global 100, IOO
4.51% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
4.43% Energy SPDR, XLE
4.40% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
4.40% Taiwan Index, EWT
4.38% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
4.37% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
4.36% Industrial SPDR, XLI
4.35% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
4.32% Networking, IGN
4.32% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
4.31% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
4.28% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
4.27% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
4.27% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
4.24% Energy VIPERs, VDE
4.23% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
4.12% Energy Global, IXC
4.10% Hong Kong Index, EWH
4.04% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
3.96% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
3.94% Energy DJ, IYE
3.94% MidCap Russell, IWR
3.92% Japan Index, EWJ
3.92% United Kingdom Index, EWU
3.91% Biotech SPDR, XBI
3.91% Canada Index, EWC
3.85% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
3.77% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
3.73% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
3.66% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
3.66% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
3.58% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
3.51% Value VIPERs, VTV
3.48% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
3.45% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
3.45% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
3.43% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
3.42% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
3.34% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
3.28% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
3.21% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
3.21% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
3.19% Growth VIPERs, VUG
3.17% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
3.14% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
3.14% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
3.01% Technology DJ US, IYW
2.99% Dividend SPDR, SDY
2.98% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
2.97% Technology SPDR, XLK
2.83% Dividend International, PID
2.78% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
2.76% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
2.76% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
2.73% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
2.65% Commodity Tracking, DBC
2.64% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
2.43% Health Care SPDR, XLV
2.39% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
2.38% Utilities SPDR, XLU
2.12% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.90% Financial Preferred, PGF
1.76% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
1.73% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.73% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
1.47% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
1.35% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
1.28% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.28% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.11% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.07% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.29% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.38% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.57% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-1.21% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-3.39% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT