For all you Bob Welch fans, this one’s for you. Still a youngin? How about Fleetwood Mac?
Sentiment is a wonderful tool these days. Certainly, charting is going a bit awry as the failed head-and-shoulders – before this 9% rally – proves. But while traditional chart reading – as in sell the breakdown, collect profits – was ferblungen (that’s a technical term) those who took the pulse of the marketplace were ready to go.
Yes, even Mikey the Bear (that’s me) was looking for a bounce. No, not 9% but something. I was not fooled by the head-and-shoulders everyone and his dog was talking about. Did I mention this in the blog that Mark Haines was grilling every guest – and I mean even the fundie guys – if they were watching the pattern.
What everyone knows is not worth knowing (Old Wall Street lore).
Today, everyone was waiting for the correction that surely was due. After all, the Naz was up 12 straight days. I remember a rule of thumb I used back in the bubble days when I bought a stock for a dead cat bounce after 10 down days in a row. You’ll never guess my favorite winner back then – Enron! That pig was heading for the barbecue and I made money on the long side with an overnight trade.
Good thing I did not try that this week. I’d be the one on the spit, slowly turning, turning, turning over the flames.
These days, everyone seem to be hip to those old little tricks and naturally they do not work. Fade the Nasdaq? It did not work at 10. It did not work at 11. And it did not work at 12 although there is a little day left to go.
Sentiment was too bearish. No, not the VIX or the AAII survey. These things are also getting overused and are under effective.
But that is short-term stuff. Thursday was a demoralizing day for the bears so while I think today’s timing was off I can feel the capitulation building.
Oh, and Sentimental Lady was a song by Bob Welch in the 70s and again by Fleetwood Mac (with Welch in the band pre-Buckingham-Nicks) not long thereafter.