September was another solid month for the Oxen Report, and by far, the best of 2010. Our Buy/Overnight/Week Trade Portfolio for 2010 is up 94% so far this year with 131 trades. We have gotten 98 of these 131 actionable trades correct, giving the portfolio a 75% success rate thus far for the year. The Short Sale Portfolio is up nearly 30% thus far this year on 62 trades, and it has over a 82% success rate as well with 51 correct trades. Finally, we have a new portfolio that just started in September, which is the Longterm Ratings. The portfolio is not one that needs to be updated on a daily basis, but we will continue to watch for developments that would change my thoughts on our fair value estimates for them. Our 2009 portfolios ended with Buy Picks up 108% in 9 months. The Short Sale Portfolio ended up 10% in 6 months.
 
The way that my portfolio works is that for Buy/Overnight/Week, I have started with $10000 in 2010. This amount is divided between four mini-accounts that each have $2500 in them. These mini-accounts A-D are rotated through each other so that I can account for multiple positions being open at one time and having time to let money settle after selling a position. Below the account portfolio for September of 2010 is available. The portfolio shows entry, exit, amount gained/lost, changes in account and total money, and the date of action. If you would like to view January – June, click here.
 
The Buy/Overnight/Weekly Portfolio
 

08/31/2010 – 09/01/10LTXC2.22.20.00%-8 4308.14  16224.2209/02/10LTD23.7524.232.00%77.26  4919.03 16301.4809/07/10NSM12.912.25-5.00%-183   3459.2816118.4809/07/10 – 09/08/10NAV44.9344.6-0.75%-31.433202.49   16087.0509/08/10FAZ14.1513.95-1.50%-68.8 4239.34  16018.2509/09/10 – 09/10/10LULU36.7540.049.75%429.57  5348.6 16447.8209/10/10DPS35.0334.95-0.25%-15.84   3443.4416431.9809/13/2010 – 09/15/10SVNT14.75 (DD)18.2523.75%1775.84090.395127.24  18207.7809/14/10ERY47.07482.00%97.09  5445.69 18304.8709/17/10ALKS14.9514.8-1.00%-42.5   3485.9418262.3709/17/10RIMM (SS)47.7547.071.50%44.74135.09   18307.0709/20/10PHM8.368.522.00%90.08 5217.32  18397.1509/21/10DRV21.5821.992.00%95.32  5541.01 18492.4709/22/10BBBY41.9243.453.65%118.99   3604.9318611.4609/22/10KBH11.84 (DD)12.152.70%239.684196.295395.8  18851.1409/23/10NOVL5.956.123.00%150.27  5691.28 19001.4109/27/10AAI7.197.43.00%97.21   3702.1419098.6209/29/10WOR15.35164.30%169.454365.74   19268.0709/30/10MOS58.660.43.00%157.6 5553.4  19425.67

Short Sale Portfolio
 
The Short Sale Portfolio, which is up over 29% this year, is done in the same way as the Buy Portfolio. The only difference is that the Portfolio has three rotating accounts rather than four.
 
09/02/2010 – 09/08/10 KBH 11.62 (TD) 11.51 1.00% 62.24 2998.86 3210.91 2976.93 9175.93
09/09/10 LEN 14.67 (DD) 14.32 2.00% 131.7 3064.71 3276.76   9307.63
09/14/10 TER 9.85 9.66 2.00% 49.38     3026.31 9357.01
09/16/10 RIMM 46.29 47.07 1.50% 43.48 3108.19     9400.49
09/16/10 AIR 19.13 18.75 2.00% 56.98   3333.74   9457.47
09/17/10 OSK 27.84 27.1 2.75% 71.92     3098.23 9529.39
09/21/2010 – 09/23/10 NBR 18.45 18.09 2.00% 52.48 3160.67     9581.87
09/24/10 TIBX 18.6 18.14 2.50% 74.34   3404.08   9656.21
09/29/10 THOR 32.58 33.23 2.00% 55.65     3153.88 9711.86
 
Long Term Ratings
 
 
Date of Initial Rating Stock Entry Rating Exit Rating Current Rating FV Estimate
09/10/10 FSLR Below 130 Above 198 Hold 174
09/14/10 SKX Below 22 Above 32 Hold 28.5
09/17/10 ALGN Below 15 Above 24.50 Hold 22
09/21/10 CREE Below 44 Above 61 Hold 56
09/23/10 RYL Below 15.25 Above 22 Hold 20
09/27/10 FTR Below 13.50 Above 15 Buy 16
09/28/10 TSL Below 27 Above 45 Hold 38.5
09/29/10 GMCR Below 17 Above 25 Sell 22
 
 
Good Investing,
 
David Ristau 

 

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