I haven’t changed my opinion on anything in a few days, therefore, I haven’t seen the need to write.
I am looking at the chart of the S&P500. If someone handed it to me without telling me before hand what it was a chart of , or from what time period. I’d have to stay with my feeling that short term trend is still cautiously bullish. The intermediate term trend (1 year or less) is still bullish. And the longer term trend is neutral. Ditto for the Dow Jones.

I continue to feel that we will climb a wall of worry, at its best. We also may just trade in a 500 or 600 point sideways churn for the next 18 months, until we are full swing into a new (OMG) Presidential Election Cycle.

Currently we are sitting in no man’s land as the country tries to digest 1) how far left this socialist President will swing us, 2) what the real ramifications are to the fact that we are in effect, mired in two wars with seemingly unending time frames, with enormous costs, and 3) we hang fire waiting for the next great technological wave which will catapult us out of this stagflation.

By the way, I could care less about whether a politician is right wing, left wing or no-wing. Bottom line, though, not to call Obama a socialist is an insult to socialists. Socialists are not necessarily Communists (but I have a sneaky feeling that every socialist at heart would like to see Communism, but only if they, in their infinite wisdom, were calling the shots).

George Orwell nailed the whole thing on the head in his book “Animal Farm” written 80 years ago when people actually read books instead of texting all day….In it, there is a quintessential line where he nails socialism or as I like to call it communism-light, in one sentence. At one point, the pigs, who were the leaders of the revolution, declared “All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others”. That is the Achilles heel of socialism. It assumes that people won’t be the greedy, competitive, spiteful, jealous, obnoxious homo sapiens who, for better or worse, used those attributes to build a little thing called civilization.

However, I firmly believe that in his heart of heart, President Obama believes his world view is the best. Apparently every one who voted him into office really wanted change at any price, but alas, like most romances, once the bloom is off the rose, his supporters are starting to notice his foibles, weakness, and other frailties, which, alas, make him human too. No matter how many times Oprah compares him to Neo in The Matrix, he is not the ONE, as she anointed him. He is just a man, with a viewpoint, a nice face, a great speaking voice, with a message.

Right now, America is waking up to the fact that maybe… maybe not so much… on the whole change thing….thank you…

Which is what America is great at doing. In the 1920’s and 1930’s we saw the same flirtation with socialism. Spurred on by the 1917 Russian Revolution, the Reds in this country became enamored with the ideas of socialism. For a good historical/entertainment epoch, watch the movie Reds, with Warren Beaty. It outlines how the ‘intelligentsia’ and the educated elite on the East Coast fell in love with the whole idea of a socialist worker’s paradise.
The only problem is, unfortunately, the last bastion of folks who believe in the failed experiment of Communism, continue to be true believers and “fellow travelers” to this day.

There is something about the life of Academia which fosters this love affair with socialism/communism. My whole life, my teachers were generally the most liberal people ever. And I loved many of them as people. Most of them were terrific people. Terrific, good people, who, in my opinion, were just woefully naive about how the real world works, unfortunately.

Case in point, in Rodney Dangerfield’s back to school. There is a great scene where Rodney is in a Business Class. The professor is outlining his business plan, in the most naive and preposterous manner, assuming that all would go well, if only you wrote a clear concise plan of action. Rodney Dangerfields character, Fielding Mellish, stands up. He had built a business for ‘big and tall and fat’ men clothes. His business was worth Millions, and he was only in College to hang out with his Son, with whom he was trying to re-establish a relationship. Anyhow, rent the movie…. Rodney Stands up and rips the professor’s plan to shreds. And he asks the Professor what ‘world’ his imaginary business would survive in? Disney Land…

Its this disconnect from reality which I firmly believe afflicts our current President. Brilliant, yes. Well meaning, yes, A genuinely kind and compassionate and caring man? yes.
However, he’s never been out of academia. He has the same view of communism that all East Coast Liberals, or for that matter, West Coast or Mid west liberals have… They are smarter than every one, if everyone followed their plan everyone would be better off, and if we could just get rid of everyone who rightly or wrongly opposed them, the world would be a much more civil, pleasant, free flowing world.

The problem is, that is just too naive. This country is also populated by enough Fielding Melish types, who live and work in the real world, that it is their job to give a reality check to the professors of the world.

That, I believe, is what is happening/going to happen/ will continue to happen/ for the rest of Obama’s Presidency. We will see the idealistic Pluto=crats bump noses with the practical real world, Fielding Melishes of the US.
My money, longer term, is on the Fielding Melishes of the US.

The beauty of the United States is such that the balance of power exists. The legislative branch spends the dough. And the US population has historically liked a tug of war in Washington.

President Reagan lost his super majority in the House in short-order back in the 1982 mid term election. All signs now point towards a similar repudiation of one party power in Washington.

Ironically, the Dems’ had control of every thing for a year, and still couldn’t get sweeping change. No matter how many times they play that annoying song by John Mayer Waiting on a Change…. it seems like the Dems had their chance for a year, and found out that, guess what? Real world politics isn’t like a civics class at Harvard Law. (Sorry, Obama)you don’t get extra points for ‘style’ or ‘substance’ like some debate club at an Ivy league school.

Votes talk… Everything else walks. And politics is a Pass/Fail class, with no make-up quizzes, or brownie points given to favorites. At the end of the day,either you win or you lose, and you don’t get to retire to the coffee house, listen to Arlo Guthrie Songs, and lament the fact that ‘the man is keeping you down’. You either win and implement your ‘change’ or lose and talk about how unfair the whole system is, or the fact that ‘congress is broken’ (thank you Senator Evan Bayh from Indiana) I am taking my ball and going home.

Granted, this is just my opinion. And opinions are like belly buttons. Every one has one, and most of them have lint… Other than that, there are few distinguishing characteristics.

I just hope we keep free markets alive, and I hope we have some markets we can trade and be profitable with. That being said, I love America. I am cautiously bullish right now, in spite of the daily drone of negative information. Lets keep climbing the wall of worry.

As always though, make use of your stop loss orders. That’s what they are there for. Opinions are great, if they are managed with stop loss orders. The moment you get long, you should have a stop in to save you from your stubbornness, if per chance, you are long and wrong.

The moment you are short, you should have a pre-existing buy stop to avoid getting run over by stampeding bulls.
Manage yourself. Manage your emotions, Manage your dough. The profitable trades will take care of the rest.

Good Trading