The FX Specialist view – The downtrend in USD/JPY from the May high came close to the major 1995 low in early Nov, where support has emerged. After rebounding shorter term bull signs have been seen, and we expect further gains to be made before any resumption of the long term bear trend.
- MONTHLY CHART
In the FX Specialist Guide we continue to note the positive RSI divergence, which questions the longer term bears’ resolve.
See how the major 1995 low just under 80.00 was neared, with support beginning to emerge. - WEEKLY CHART
The downtrend has so far fallen short of the projected bear channel base, our next support on this chart.
First resistance here comes from the late 2009 84.81 low – see also Daily chart, though. - DAILY CHART:
The breach of the bear channel top and 23.6% level favours shorter term bulls now, with any dips viewed as temporary.
Potential supports here include the 82.00 area and the lower 81.20 76.4% pullback.
At this stage the next upside focus is on the 85.86/93 area, 38.2% recovery and 16-Sep high. However, the more key, pivotal resistance area is 87.60/88.00, 50% recovery and old key support.
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