Not a bad way, to start a day, and then a thought emerges …
The AP survey collected the views of 42 private, corporate, and academic economists on a range of indicators. Among their forecasts:
• The economy will grow 3.2 percent this year, compared with the 2.7 percent they forecast in October. That would top last year’s estimated growth of less than 3 percent.
• Employers will create a net 2.2 million jobs. Three months ago, the economists predicted 1.6 million jobs would be added in 2011. Last year, employers added roughly 1.1 million.
• Consumers will spend 3.2 percent more this year than last year. That’s stronger than the 2.5 percent growth the economists had forecast in October. And it’s nearly double the spending growth that’s estimated for 2010.
• Inflation will be 1.8 percent this year, barely more than the 1.7 percent the economists forecast in the previous survey and up only slightly from 1.5 percent last year. The 1.8 percent forecast falls within the range of inflation the Federal Reserve thinks a healthy economy needs.
Yet when asked about a range of threats — from falling home prices and rising energy prices to state budget woes and Europe’s debt crisis — the economists called each a minor risk rather than a major risk to the economy.
As I was reading the survey above, it struck me that we have a major disconnect in our political system, and this political disconnect poses the greatest risk (major) to our burgeoning economic recovery. Simply, the disconnect is that one side is out there claiming all the economic initiatives and policies of the last two years have done little to improve the economy, and some have even made it worse. Now, I am apolitical, as I get it that both political sides feed from the same trough – lobbies – and that both sides have an ideological agenda. What I don’t get is how one side cannot see its strict adhere to its ideology is endangering our economic recovery. No matter the ideology, without a doubt, the most important thing on any national agenda should be keeping the economic recovery going. Talking down our economic recovery hinders that recovery, as perception is reality in this world, and to do it for political gain (power) is out-and-out wrong and bad for our country as a whole; it is bad for all of us. A strong economy provides the most for everyone.
Talking is one thing, but actually doing is another. The Republicans are talking about budget legislation that cuts spending dramatically. Sure enough, we desperately need spending cuts in all areas, but now is not the time for Draconian measures. Taking an axe to the budget (as opposed to a scalpel) provides the same outcome as raising taxes when the economy is fragile – economic degeneration. If you think I am off the mark here, take a look at the British economy since the Conservatives there implemented their austerity cuts last year. Not good, my friends, not good at all.
Trade in the day – Invest in your life
