The following defensive stock sector ETFs rose to new absolute price highs, thereby confirming major price uptrends:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
Consumer Staples (XLP)
Health Care (XLV)
The following cyclical stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratios fell below their 50-day SMAs on 3/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral:
Industrial (XLI)
Energy (XLE)
Technology stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 3/4/13, again confirming its established systematically bearish major trend.
The following foreign stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratios fell below the lows of the previous 3 to 5 months on 3/4/13, again confirming medium-term downtrends:
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF)
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM)
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA)
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell to its lowest level in 10 weeks on 3/4/13, again confirming a downtrend for the medium term.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 3/4/13 for a bearish “Dead Cross”.
Monday’s U.S. major stock price indexes opened lower but recovered in the afternoon. The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,525.20) finished up 0.46%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.39%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.27%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average jumped 1.00%. By the close, the number of Advances exceeded the number of Declines by nearly 5 to 4.
Volume on the NYSE fell 11%. Volume is shrinking on price rallies and increasing on price declines, which is not a good sign, technically.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains in 6 of the past 7 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1525.34, high of 2/28/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1485.37, 50-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1413.22, 200-day SMA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs 6-months on 3/1/13, after closing above its 200-day SMA on 2/21/13. UUP turned systematically neutral on 2/7/13, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.38, 22.15, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.78, 22.96, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA)price fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/26/13. Price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell to its lowest level in 10 weeks on 3/4/13, again confirming a downtrend for the medium term. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 33.75, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 8 months on 2/20/13. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 2/20/13. Price turned systematically neutral on 2/7/13 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 3/4/13 for a bearish “Dead Cross”. Longer term, SLV price has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 2/28/13. SLV/GLD remains below both its falling 50-day SMA and its falling 200-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC)fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 3/1/13, confirming a medium-term downtrend. JJC remains systematically neutral, below the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. JJC has been consolidating losses between 38.99 and 51.41 since 10/5/11. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness of Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
23.96% , MBI , MBIA
3.54% , SVU , SUPERVALU
0.69% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
6.69% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
3.46% , HES , AMERADA HESS
10.29% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
3.60% , TGT , TARGET
0.41% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
0.13% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
0.45% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
1.13% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
0.67% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
1.82% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
0.84% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
2.09% , TIF , TIFFANY
2.23% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
0.79% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
0.71% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
2.48% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
4.07% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
2.98% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
0.75% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
2.68% , KMX , CarMax
1.18% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.41% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
0.90% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.09% , WPO , Washington Post
1.86% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
0.79% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
1.71% , KEY , KEYCORP
2.51% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
2.63% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
0.16% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.70% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-9.33% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-4.31% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-3.29% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-5.82% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-3.24% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-2.48% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
-0.63% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.71% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.94% , MAR , MARRIOTT INTL STK A
-3.16% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-1.17% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-1.37% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.51% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.76% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
-0.28% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.30% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-1.91% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-1.36% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.25% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-0.39% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
-1.18% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-1.33% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
-1.04% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.04% , ALTR , ALTERA
-0.32% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-0.76% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.56% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-0.41% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.04% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.81% , DOV , DOVER
-2.42% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-0.20% , XLI , Industrial SPDR, XLI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.79% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.27% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.18% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.14% Spain Index, EWP
1.13% Sweden Index, EWD
1.11% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.01% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.94% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.90% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.88% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.85% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.84% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.76% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.76% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.75% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.75% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.74% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.70% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.69% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.69% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.68% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.64% France Index, EWQ
0.62% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.59% European VIPERs, VGK
0.59% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.58% Japan Index, EWJ
0.57% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.55% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.55% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.53% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.53% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.52% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.50% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.49% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.49% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.49% Dividend International, PID
0.49% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.49% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.48% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.48% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.47% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.47% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.46% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.46% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.45% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.45% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.44% Global 100, IOO
0.43% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.42% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.42% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.41% Belgium Index, EWK
0.41% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.41% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.41% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.39% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.38% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.38% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.38% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.36% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.35% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.33% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.33% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.32% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.30% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.28% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.27% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.27% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.26% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.26% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.25% Germany Index, EWG
0.23% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.22% Water Resources, PHO
0.22% Austria Index, EWO
0.22% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.21% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.20% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.18% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.16% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.15% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.14% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.13% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.10% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.10% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.08% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.07% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.05% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.01% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.00% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.05% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.06% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.06% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.07% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.07% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.07% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.08% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.09% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.10% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.12% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.14% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.16% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.16% Italy Index, EWI
-0.20% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.21% Networking, IGN
-0.22% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.23% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.26% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.28% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.28% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.30% Energy Global, IXC
-0.31% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.31% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.37% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.39% Canada Index, EWC
-0.39% India PS, PIN
-0.41% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.46% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.47% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.47% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.53% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.55% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.56% Australia Index, EWA
-0.57% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.63% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.64% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.71% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.76% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.79% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.87% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.94% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.99% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.02% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.04% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.18% Russia MV, RSX
-1.24% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.36% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.37% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.51% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.74% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.95% South Africa Index, EZA
