Last Thursday’s export sales report for beans came in at 2.087 million metric tons vs. 2.030 last week and over 2 million metric tons in the last three out of five weekly reports. Of last week’s total, China was in for 1.410 of the total. Total exports last week were 2.806 showing that not just China is buying U.S. soybeans, but the rest of the world is as well. This had little impact on beans; however, as beans closed lower on the day. Non-commercials funds came in the last week of October long 18,000 contracts and index funds long 121,000 contracts. This left room for a lot of profit taking after the last USDA report rallying the market to 9.24 basis January soybeans. This week’s low of 8.75 equals the low prior the last report, a close under and next 8.60. Any move close to 8.60 should be bought as all the bearish news leading into the report will be priced in. Bullish news prior the report will come from an impending truck strike in Brazil November 9th. To date we have exported 89 million bushels less wheat and 66 million bushels less corn, but have exported 48 million bushels more beans year on year. With China purchasing at record levels and taking everything they buy now there is no room for a lengthy truck strike. The last USDA report was surprisingly bullish; this report then should lead to a lot of short covering from profitable shorts in the market even though recently harvested beans came from the high yielding states of Iowa and Nebraska.
For those interested in grains, Walsh Trading’s Senior Grain analyst Tim Hannagan hosts a free grain webinar each Thursday at 3:00 pm central time. Tim has been ranked the #1 grain analyst in the United States per Reuters and Bloomberg for his most accurate price predictions for soybeans and corn in the years 2011 and 2012. Link for next week’s webinar is below. If you cannot attend live, a recording will be sent to your email upon signup. Or please contact me at anytime at slusk@walshtrading.com
RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING. THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT. WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.
