The following major indexes rose to new highs, thereby confirming their preexisting uptrends:
Dow Composite
Dow Transports
Nasdaq 100
Industrial SPDR stock sector ETF absolute closed above 2-year closing price highs and remains bullish.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell below 2-month lows, reconfirming a bearish trend for the intermediate term. The ratio has been trending lower since making a top on 12/6/10.
“I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements, that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.”– Edwin Lefèvre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.04% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
0.84% , SWH , Software H, SWH
0.35% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
4.60% , WFMI , Whole Foods Market Inc
1.73% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
1.95% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
1.52% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.25% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
2.09% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
2.43% , WMB , WILLIAMS
2.31% , DE , DEERE & CO
1.00% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
2.15% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
0.36% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
0.99% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
1.87% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
0.97% , CMI , CUMMINS
0.76% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
2.44% , TYC , TYCO INTL
1.31% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
2.26% , EMC , EMC
0.39% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.35% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.65% , STT , STATE STREET
1.90% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
0.88% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
2.10% , EP , EL PASO
0.54% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
2.31% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
0.64% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
0.73% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
0.87% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
0.42% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.62% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-3.27% , PPL , PPL
-6.05% , CVG , CONVERGYS
-1.20% , PPH , Pharmaceutical H, PPH
-4.50% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-5.46% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
-0.44% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-2.36% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
-3.45% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.08% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
-3.02% , AA , ALCOA
-0.05% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-1.15% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.26% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.01% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-1.47% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-1.76% , PCAR , PACCAR
-1.82% , X , US STEEL CORP
-0.82% , VFC , VF
-1.09% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.59% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-0.53% , XLV , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.54% , DELL , DELL
-0.09% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-1.62% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-1.29% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-1.77% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-2.01% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-1.93% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-1.24% , CB , CHUBB
-1.26% , MTB , M&T BANK
-1.65% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-0.37% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 14-month highs on 1/12/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year highs on 1/12/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 67.49, 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 78.10.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Absolute closed above 2-year closing price highs on 1/13/11 and remains bullish. Support 35.03, 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 36.16.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 11-month highs on 12/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 1/12/11 and remains bullish. Support 37.72 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 40.15 and 41.06.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/27/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 1/5/11 and remains bullish. Support 37.29, 37.15, 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 39.09, 40.13, and 40.70.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 8-week lows on 12/16/10 and turned neutral for the secondary trend. This RS ratio rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10, which was a bullish confirmation of the primary uptrend. Absolute price of XLK rose above 3-year highs on 1/12/11 and remains bullish. Support 25.53, 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/8/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price of XLF rose above 8-month highs on 1/12/11 and remains bullish. Support 16.03, 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 1/12/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price fell below 4-week lows on 1/7/11 and has been trending lower since 12/16/10. Support 28.93, 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.58 and 30.29.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 1/3/11 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price rose above 9-month highs on 1/12/11 and remains bullish. Support 31.88, 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-year lows on 1/12/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/3/11 and is technically bullish. Support 31.23, 30.51, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.11 and 32.40.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below 6-month lows on 1/10/11 and remains neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell further below 6-month lows on 1/10/11. Based on 50- and 200-day SMAs, the ratio remains neutral at this time, although it is rapidly heading toward bearish territory.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 10-year highs on 1/10/11, confirming a bullish Primary Tide uptrend for the longer-term.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/4/11, turning neutral technically. The ratio fell below 28-year lows on 12/3/10, confirming a major bearish trend. Big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 12/27/10 and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 3-year closing price highs on 1/12/11 and remains bullish.
CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs on 1/12/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price consolidated gains after rising above 6-day highs 1/12/11, suggesting a short-term uptrend. Oil rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 87.25, 86.83, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 92.57, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price consolidated gains after rising above 5-day highs 1/12/11, suggesting a short-term uptrend. Gold rose above previous all-time highs and confirmed a bullish major trend on 12/7/10. Support 1361.6, 1352.6, 1329.0, 1325.5, 1317.5, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1432.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell below 2-month lows on 1/13/11, reconfirming a bearish trend for the intermediate term. The ratio has been trending lower since making a top on 12/6/10.
Silver nearest futures contract price fell below 2-day lows 1/13/11, suggesting a short-term shakeout. Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish major trend for the long term. Support 28.325, 28.01, and 24.98. Resistance: 31.275.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 3-year highs on 12/31/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price consolidated gains after rising above 5-day highs 1/12/11, suggesting a short-term uptrend. Copper rose above multi-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 4.204, 4.08, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: none.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price has turned choppy and still looks uncertain for the short term. The bond contract fell below the lows of the previous 7 months on 12/15/10, confirming a bearish major trend. Support 118.21, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 121.20, 122.02, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 8-month highs on 12/28/10 and remains bullish. JNK absolute price rose above 6-week highs on 12/27/10, which is bullish for the short term. Price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish for the longer term.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) is in a rising trend since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising Relative Strength Ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected Notes at a relatively more subdued pace compared to the U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Note (IEF) over the past 4 months.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 6 days 1/13/11, confirming a short-term downtrend. USD appears to have reversed after meeting resistance near its 200-day SMA, which stands near chart resistance at 81.635 to 82.02. Longer term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish long-term price trend. Support 79.025, 78.44, 78.01, 76.175, 75.23, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 57.3% Bulls versus 19.1% Bears as of 1/12/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 3.00, which is more two standard deviations above the long-term, 20-year mean. High and rising bullish sentiment is normal, not a barrier to continuing gains, in a major bull market trend. The ratio was higher at this time last year, at 3.36 as of 1/13/10, and the S&P 500 index is 11.66% higher now than it was then. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.54, and the mean is 1.61.
VIX Fear Index fell below 8-month lows to 15.40 on 12/23/10, reflecting diminishing fear among options players. VIX is near its 3-year low of 15.23 set on 4/12/10. Before we take the current level of VIX as a sell signal, however, we might consider that VIX was as low as 9.89 on 1/24/07, nearly 10 months before the final tops in the price indexes. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 1/12/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,283.76) consolidated gains after rising above the highs of the previous 2-years on 1/12/11, and thereby confirming the Dow Theory Bullish Primary Tide Trend.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1251.48, low of 12/27/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.33% Spain Index, EWP
1.87% France Index, EWQ
1.52% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.46% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.35% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.31% Italy Index, EWI
1.25% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.09% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.00% Belgium Index, EWK
0.99% Germany Index, EWG
0.91% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.90% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.85% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.69% Australia Index, EWA
0.67% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.53% Networking, IGN
0.48% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.43% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.41% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.41% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.40% Austria Index, EWO
0.39% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.38% European VIPERs, VGK
0.37% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.36% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.34% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.34% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.33% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.32% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.31% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.29% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.27% EAFE Index, EFA
0.25% Global 100, IOO
0.21% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.20% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.18% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.15% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.14% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.12% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.10% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.07% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.07% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.07% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.06% Dividend International, PID
0.06% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.05% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.04% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.04% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.03% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.02% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.02% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.02% Mexico Index, EWW
0.00% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.02% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.02% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.02% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.03% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.04% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.05% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.05% Energy Global, IXC
-0.05% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.06% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.08% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.08% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.08% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.08% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.09% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.09% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.09% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.09% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.10% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.10% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.12% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.12% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.12% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.12% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.13% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.13% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.13% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.14% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.14% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.15% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.16% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.16% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.16% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.17% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.17% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.18% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.20% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.20% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.21% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.25% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.25% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.26% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.26% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.28% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.28% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.28% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.29% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.30% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.34% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.35% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.35% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.35% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.36% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.40% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.43% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.45% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.45% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.45% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.51% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.53% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.55% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.60% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.62% Water Resources, PHO
-0.62% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.64% Canada Index, EWC
-0.71% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.71% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.74% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.75% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.86% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.87% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.87% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.90% Russia MV, RSX
-1.04% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.09% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.12% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.15% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-1.20% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.21% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.30% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.58% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.08% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.31% India PS, PIN
-3.45% Silver Trust iS, SLV
