The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 22 months on 10/6/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/6/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 15 months on 10/6/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,964.82, down 0.16%) remains in a short-term downtrend below its 50-day SMA now at 1,974.49.
NYSE total volume fell 6% to a level 3% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 20, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. Historically, September and October have been the seasonally weakest months of the year for more than a century.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. Both Averages entered Minor Ripple downside corrections since that new high.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 9/30/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose above its highs of the previous 13 years 9/18/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. BKF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 9/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. EEM/SPY has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 10/3/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 12 months on 9/23/14 and remains systematically bullish. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 22 months on 10/6/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/6/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been in a corrective mode since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 2 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 9 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, USO has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 22.74 on 2/19/09. Support 33.64, 32.68, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. GDX/GLD has been systematically neutral most of the time since it bottomed on 12/6/13.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.89% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
4.74% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
3.57% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
4.51% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.87% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
2.89% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
6.11% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.66% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
0.57% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.68% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.23% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
1.03% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
1.36% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
1.90% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
0.67% , AEE , AMEREN
1.27% , GLW , CORNING
2.04% , BCR , C R BARD
0.82% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.66% , PID , Dividend International, PID
1.40% , KO , COCA COLA
0.92% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
1.31% , EEM , Emerging Markets, EEM
1.78% , VWO , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.50% , AA , ALCOA
0.75% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
0.64% , EFA , EAFE Index, EFA
0.92% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
0.62% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
0.44% , CSX , CSX
0.46% , IR , INGER RAND
1.27% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.29% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.59% , MON , MONSANTO
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-11.69% , UIS , UNISYS
-12.10% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-0.58% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-3.86% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-5.53% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-4.04% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-2.11% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.94% , ALTR , ALTERA
-2.67% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-2.05% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.87% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
-5.60% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-3.06% , KSS , KOHLS
-2.25% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-1.93% , DLX , DELUXE
-0.39% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-1.53% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-2.15% , FDX , FEDEX
-0.53% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-1.19% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.98% , FISV , FISERV
-0.16% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
-0.19% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-0.86% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-2.85% , AET , AETNA
-2.08% , HUM , HUMANA
-0.20% , IGV , Software, IGV
-1.50% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-1.26% , TYC , TYCO INTL
-1.02% , NUE , NUCOR
-0.71% , GE , GENERAL ELECTRIC
-1.04% , ITT , ITT INDS
-1.10% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
6.11% , Brazil Index, EWZ
4.51% , Latin Am 40, ILF
2.98% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.76% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
2.23% , South Africa Index, EZA
2.17% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
2.16% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
2.03% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.90% , Russia MV, RSX
1.78% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.48% , Spain Index, EWP
1.44% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.31% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.27% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.24% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.22% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.21% , Mexico Index, EWW
1.02% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.98% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.96% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.92% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.87% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.86% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.86% , France Index, EWQ
0.86% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.85% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.82% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.82% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.80% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.78% , India PS, PIN
0.71% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.69% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.68% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.66% , Canada Index, EWC
0.66% , Dividend International, PID
0.66% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.64% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.63% , Austria Index, EWO
0.62% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.61% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.59% , Energy Global, IXC
0.56% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.52% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.50% , Australia Index, EWA
0.38% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.34% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.29% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.27% , Global 100, IOO
0.26% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.22% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.21% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.20% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.20% , Italy Index, EWI
0.19% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.16% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.13% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.13% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.13% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.11% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.11% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.11% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.09% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.09% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.09% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.08% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.07% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.07% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.06% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.06% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.05% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.04% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.04% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.03% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.03% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.02% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.00% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.02% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.02% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.03% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.03% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.03% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.04% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.04% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.04% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.08% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.08% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.09% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.10% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.10% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.12% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.12% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.13% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.13% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.14% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.14% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.14% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.15% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.15% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.15% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.15% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.16% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.16% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.18% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.19% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.20% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.20% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.21% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.21% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.22% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.22% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.22% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.23% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.26% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.28% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.30% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.30% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.30% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.32% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.35% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.36% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.39% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.45% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.46% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.47% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.54% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.54% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.72% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.74% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.75% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.86% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.86% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.87% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.91% , Networking, IGN
-1.02% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.13% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.17% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.19% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-1.57% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.05% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.11% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-3.86% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2019.26, high of 9/19/2014
1974.49, 50-day SMA
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.98, 200-day SMA
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
