The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index (IWM) absolute price rose to a new high on 1/16/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/16/14 when it rose above its 50-day SMA.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/16/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,845.89), down 0.13%, absolute price opened moderately lower and sagged further during the first 91 minutes. Prices spent most of the day struggling to recover the early loss. S&P 500 closed slightly above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, but below the previous closing price. Other indexes finished mixed, in an indecisive manner.
NYSE total volume fell 7% to its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to 261 on Thursday, down from 439 on Wednesday. These numbers are still far below peaks above 800 in 2013, thereby diverging bearishly compared to higher highs for the large-capitalization stock price indexes.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 continue to lag the price index itself. Both were unable to rise above their previous 2013 highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highest levels of the previous 15 months on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term uptrend. QQQ/SPY rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/15/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/9/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 1/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/9/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/20/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/16/14 and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/7/14 by crossing above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/15/14 and remains systematically bullish.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/10/14 when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Support 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 105.41, 108.73, 109.69, 110.80, 114.77, 118.94, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/16/14 when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Support 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 103.40, 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/16/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price of JNK has been consolidating in a trading range between 41.95 and 38.21 since 5/8/13 and remains systematically neutral.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) trended down for 2 years from a high on 4/8/11 to a low on 6/24/13 but has stabilized since 6/24/13 and is now systematically neutral. Absolute price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/10/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Price of TIP has been consolidating in a trading range between 113.54 and 108.63 since 9/5/13.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/15/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 1/9/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA has been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, since it peaked at 35.58 on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 1/9/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. USO remains below both SMAs, and the 50-day SMA is below the 200-day SMA. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.07, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/14/14 when it whipsawed below its 50-day SMA. Support: 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 122.32, 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Previously, GDX/GLD fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.69, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/1, but SLV has held up better then GLD since 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.14% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
3.55% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
3.70% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
0.45% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
2.65% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
4.55% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
3.54% , LLY , ELI LILLY
1.80% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
1.70% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
0.60% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
4.25% , AA , ALCOA
2.96% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
0.54% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
2.59% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
2.50% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
1.61% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
1.57% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
2.28% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
2.24% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
0.33% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.73% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
1.39% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
0.27% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
0.40% , XRX , XEROX
0.63% , MCD , MCDONALDS
0.58% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.21% , EIX , EDISON INTL
0.23% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.17% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.29% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
1.41% , HSP , HOSPIRA
0.15% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
0.34% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-28.59% , BBY , BEST BUY
-5.01% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-4.01% , SPLS , STAPLES
-6.81% , CSX , CSX
-3.73% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
-4.87% , KR , KROGER
-1.45% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-2.84% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-1.58% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-4.35% , C , CITIGROUP
-2.63% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.77% , COH , COACH
-0.76% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-1.85% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-2.73% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-0.40% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-1.57% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-2.83% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
-1.68% , VFC , VF
-1.09% , NE , NOBLE
-1.74% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-1.78% , YHOO , YAHOO
-1.55% , KSS , KOHLS
-1.78% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-1.32% , ALL , ALLSTATE
-1.59% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
-2.62% , FHN , First Horizon National
-1.21% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
-2.78% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-2.00% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-1.05% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-0.15% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-0.76% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.71% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.04% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.17% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.69% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.67% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.58% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.56% , Canada Index, EWC
0.56% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.54% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.54% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.45% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.45% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.34% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.33% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.33% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.29% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.28% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.27% , Water Resources, PHO
0.25% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.24% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.24% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.23% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.23% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.23% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.22% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.21% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.21% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.20% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.20% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.19% , Energy Global, IXC
0.18% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.18% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.17% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.17% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.16% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.16% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.14% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.14% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.14% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.12% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.11% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.10% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.09% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.08% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.08% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.06% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.06% , Dividend International, PID
0.05% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.04% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.02% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.02% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.01% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.00% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.00% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.00% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.00% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.01% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.01% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.01% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.01% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.02% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.02% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.03% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.04% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.04% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.04% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.04% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.05% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.06% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.06% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.06% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.07% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.07% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.07% , France Index, EWQ
-0.07% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.08% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.08% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.09% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.09% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.09% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.10% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.10% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.10% , Global 100, IOO
-0.12% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.13% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.13% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.13% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.14% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.14% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.14% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.14% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.15% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.15% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.15% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.16% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.16% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.16% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.16% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.16% , Networking, IGN
-0.16% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.17% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.17% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.20% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.20% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.21% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.22% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.23% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.25% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.25% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.26% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.27% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.29% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.30% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.33% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.36% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.36% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.36% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.37% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.44% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.45% , India PS, PIN
-0.49% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.51% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.53% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.55% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.55% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.60% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.63% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.66% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.67% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.70% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.76% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.83% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.85% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.91% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.93% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.10% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.21% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.91% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.63% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
none
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1806.06, 50-day SMA
1767.99, low of 12/18/2013
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1694.55, 200-day SMA
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
