Softs – August 22, 2007

October sugar closed down 11 points at 9.31 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently. Bears still have downside technical momentum on their side as a steep three-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices above solid resistance at 9.60 cents. Bears’ next downside price objective is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 9.08 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 9.49 cents and then at 9.60 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 9.25 cents and then at 9.08 cents.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.5.

DECEMBER COFFEE

December coffee closed down 80 points at 118.05 cents today. Prices closed near the session low. Serious chart damage occurred last week to strongly suggest a market top is in place. Bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 122.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of 115.00 cents a pound. First support is seen at 117.00 cents and then at 116.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 119.30 cents and then at 120.00 cents.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.5.

December cocoa closed up $12 at $1,771 today. Prices closed near mid-range. Chart damage has been inflicted recently. Bears still have the solid near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is pushing prices above solid chart resistance at $1,900. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at this week’s low of $1,753. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,780 and then at this week’s high of $1,804. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,753 and then at $1,740.

December cotton closed down 20 points at 58.48 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Strong follow-through buying on Wednesday would encourage the bulls to begin to suggest that a near-term low is in place. A steep five-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the bears is to produce a close below strong technical support at last week’s low of 56.90 cents. Bulls’ next upside objective is producing a close above solid resistance at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 59.38 cents and then at 60.00 cents. First support is seen at 58.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 57.50.

November orange juice closed down 160 points at $1.2310 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Bears still have downside technical momentum on their side. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid chart resistance at $1.2800. The next downside price objective for the OJ bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at the contract low of $1.1775. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1.2520 and then at this week’s high of $1.2600. First support is seen at today’s low of $1.2240 and then at $1.2150.

September lumber futures closed down $0.50 at $274.40 today. Bears still have downside technical momentum. The recent “collapse in volatility” in lumber makes me suspect a bigger price move is on the horizon. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is closing prices above strong resistance at $283.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at the August low of $269.10. First resistance is seen at $278.00 and then at $280.00. First support is seen at $272.50 and then at $269.10.