by Jim Wyckoff, Senior Analyst TraderPlanet.com
OCTOBER SUGAR
October sugar closed up 60 points at 13.70 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh 2.5-month high yesterday on more speculative and fund buying amid higher crude oil prices that are back near a record high. A weaker U.S. dollar also aided sugar bulls yesterday yesterday. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage and gained more power yesterday. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of 14.17 cents. Bears’ next downside price objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 12.89 cents. First resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of 13.90 cents and then at 14.00 cents. First support is seen at 13.50 cents and then at 13.28 cents.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0
SEPTEMBER COFFEE
September coffee closed up 225 points at 155.45 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session high yesterday and closed at a fresh 3.5-month high close. Bulls still have solid upside technical momentum on their side. Solidly higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar helped boost coffee yesterday. Prices are in a steep three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Coffee bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 160.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at this week’s low of 149.95 cents a pound. First support is seen at yesterday’s low of 152.50 cents and then at 149.95 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 156.30 cents and then at 157.50 cents.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.5
SEPTEMBER COCOA
September cocoa closed up $108 at $3,289 yesterday. Prices closed near the session high, scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart, hit a fresh contract high and also hit a fresh 28-year high yesterday. A weaker U.S. dollar and solidly higher crude oil prices aided the cocoa bulls yesterday. Bulls still have the solid overall technical advantage amid still no early technical clues that a market top is close at hand. However, the market is now technically short-term overbought and due for a corrective pullback in prices very soon. The next upside price objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above resistance at $3,300. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at yesterday’s low of $3,155. First resistance is seen at yesterday’s contract of $3,290 and then at $3,300. First support is seen at $3,250 and then at $3,207.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 9.5
DECEMBER COTTON
December cotton closed down 205 points at 76.57 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh three-week low close yesterday. Price action yesterday saw a bearish downside “breakout” from a bearish descending triangle pattern on the daily bar chart. Cotton bears are back in technical control. Bullish “outside markets” for cotton yesterday did not give cotton any help, and that’s more bearish news for cotton bulls. The next downside price objective for the bears is to produce a close below strong technical support at 74.00 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid chart resistance at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 77.00 cents and then at 77.500 cents. First support is seen at yesterday’s low of 75.53 cents and then at 75.00 cents.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0
SEPTEMBER ORANGE JUICE
September orange juice closed up 710 points at $1.2970. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday and hit a fresh nearly four-month high. Reports that a very serious citrus-damaging insect has been found in the California citrus crop has pushed the futures market higher the past two days. Funds have also jumped on the long side of FCOJ after prices has been beaten down the past few weeks. The next upside technical objective for the FCOJ bulls is to produce a close above chart resistance at the March high of $1.3950. The next downside price objective for the OJ bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at yesterday’s low of $1.2325. First resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of $1.3230 and then at $1.3500. First support is seen at $1.2865 and then at $1.2500.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0
SEPTEMBER LUMBER
September lumber futures closed down $3.30 at $254.90 yesterday. Prices gapped lower on the daily bar chart but did close nearer the session high. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid resistance at $256.50, which would fill on the upside yesterday’s downside price gap on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at the contract low of $251.60. First resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of $255.70 and then at $256.50. First support is seen at yesterday’s low of $253.00 and then at $251.60.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 1.5
