by Jim Wyckoff, Senior Analyst TraderPlanet.com
OCTOBER SUGAR
October sugar closed down 41 points at 12.07 cents yesterday. Prices yesterday closed near the session low and hit a fresh six-week low yesterday. Near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently, including more yesterday, and bears have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 13.00 cents. Bears’ next downside price objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 11.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 12.24 cents and then at this week’s high of 12.50 cents. First support is seen at yesterday’s low of 11.95 cents and then at 11.70 cents.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.5
SEPTEMBER COFFEE
September coffee closed up 10 points at 137.40 cents yesterday in quieter trading. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday. Bears have the near-term technical advantage as a steep three-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The recent “collapse in volatility” makes me suspect a bigger price move is on the horizon. Coffee bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 142.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the June low of 132.90 cents a pound. First support is seen at this week’s low of 136.60 cents and then at 136.00 cents. First resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of 138.55 cents and then at 140.00 cents.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0
SEPTEMBER COCOA
September cocoa closed down $43 at $2,782 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh six-week low yesterday. Bearish “outside markets”–sharply lower crude oil and a firmer U.S. dollar–pressured cocoa yesterday. Bears are regaining downside technical momentum. The next upside price objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,900. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $2,700. First resistance is seen at $2,800 and then at yesterday’s high of $2,854. First support is seen at yesterday’s low of $2,775 and then at $2,750.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0
DECEMBER COTTON
December cotton closed down 123 points at 71.55 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session low. Prices have been trading in a narrow trading range for over two weeks. This pause is not bullish. The next downside price objective for the bears is to produce a close below strong technical support at the July low of 70.86 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid chart resistance at 75.70 cents. First resistance is seen at 72.00 cents and then at yesterday’s high of 73.14 cents. First support is seen at 70.86 cents and then at 70.00 cents.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.5
SEPTEMBER ORANGE JUICE
September orange juice closed down 420 points at $1.2345. Prices closed nearer the session low and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart amid bearish “outside markets” yesterday–sharply lower crude oil and gold prices. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field. The next upside technical objective for the FCOJ bulls is to produce a close above chart resistance at yesterday’s high of $1.2800. The next downside price objective for the OJ bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at the July low of $1.2065. First resistance is seen at $1.2500 and then at $1.2600. First support is seen at yesterday’s low of 1.2205 and then at $1.2065.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0
SEPTEMBER LUMBER
September lumber futures closed up $0.40 at $246.10 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A bear flag or bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $252.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at $240.00. First resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of $248.20 and then at $250.00. First support is seen at the contract low of $244.60 and then at $242.50.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 1.0
