by Jim Wyckoff, Senior Analyst TraderPlanet.com
JULY SUGAR
July sugar closed up 15 points at 9.85 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high on more tepid short covering in a bear market yesterday. Bearish “outside markets”–lower crude and a stronger U.S. dollar–limited the upside in sugar yesterday. Sugar bears still have the technical advantage amid still no strong technical clues of a market low being in place. Sugar prices are in a 13-week- old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears’ next downside price objective is to push and close prices below strong technical support at the contract low of 9.44 cents. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the last “reaction high” 10.59 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 10.02 cents and then at 10.15 cents. First support is seen at yesterday’s 9.66 cents and then at 9.50 cents.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.0
JULY COFFEE
July coffee closed up 400 points at 135.05 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday as trading remains very choppy and trendless. Coffee traders yesterday ignored bearish outside markets–lower crude oil and a stronger U.S. dollar. Prices are still trapped in a bigger trading range, bound by the April high of 142.85 cents and the March low of 128.40 cents. The direction in which prices “break out” of the bigger trading range will very likely be the direction of the next significant price trend in this market. Coffee bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 140.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at this week’s low of 130.50 cents a pound. First support is seen at 134.00 cents and then at 133.00 cents. First resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of 135.85 cents and then at 137.50 cents.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0
JULY COCOA
July cocoa closed down $2 at $2,868 yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday. This week’s “pause” is not bearish. Bulls still have the solid overall technical advantage. However, bearish “outside markets” (lower crude and a stronger U.S. dollar) are a worrisome factor for the cocoa bulls, of those markets stay in a bearish posture. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at last week’s high of $2,906. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $2,800. First resistance is seen at $2,885 and then at $2,906. First support is seen at this week’s low of $2,839 and then at $2,824.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0
JULY COTTON
July cotton closed up 15 points at 66.15 cents yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range in quieter trading. Gains were limited by bearish “outside markets yesterday–lower crude oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar. Cotton bears do still have the near-term technical advantage. However, I look for the funds to seek to buy cotton on any further price strength in crude oil or weakness in the greenback–on a “value buy” basis. A three-month-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the bears is to produce a close below strong technical support at last week’s low of 63.10 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid chart resistance at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 67.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 67.93 cents. First support is seen at yesterday’s low of 65.51 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.5
JULY ORANGE JUICE
July orange juice closed up 165 points at $1.1545. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday on short covering and bargain-hunting buying interest. Bears still have the overall technical advantage. The next upside technical objective for the FCOJ bulls is to produce a close above chart resistance at this week’s high of $1.1700. The next downside price objective for the OJ bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at $1.0700. First resistance is seen at $1.1700 and then at $1.1850. First support is seen at $1.1400 and then at yesterday’s low of $1.1185.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0
JULY LUMBER
July lumber futures closed up $2.30 at $244.60 yesterday. Prices closed near the session high and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart after hitting a fresh five-week low early on yesterday. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid resistance at $250.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at yesterday’s low of $239.10. First resistance is seen at $245.60 and then at $246.80. First support is seen at $242.00 and then at $240.00.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0
