I have reached this point before. I can feel the non-surety of my working mind. Doubt is creeping in. I want to take a vacation. The market can do this to me, perhaps to you, perhaps to anyone who plays the market.
The market can be both rational and irrational. When it behaves rationally, each day is “fun,” a bit more predictable with a bit more surety, but when it behaves irrationally, the days fill with work, the unexpected saps my energy, and, as I said, doubts creeps in. My problem, though, is not that the market is acting irrationally. My problem is that it is acting rationally and I feel as if it is acting irrationally.
The market behavior of late is understandable. It should be backing off a bit, correcting, finding balance in consolidation. All that is reasonable and understandable, yet I still feel as if I need a vacation from it. Sometimes, though, it is not about the market; it is about us. We just get tired.
Perhaps it is your family life. Maybe the pressure of raising a family is too stressful and that saps your energy. Then again, maybe it is not about the family, rather it about is your significant other. He or she is acting differently, changing, or simply distracted with issues. Maybe your work is getting to you. No matter how well you plan and execute, you just cannot get the job done successfully. Then again, maybe it is all of the above.
For me, it is work, but it is not failure that is wearing me out. It is the daily study, the looking for the clues, the searching for the trade, the never-ending pursuit of understanding the market, rational, irrational, or otherwise.
Even though today I am tired, I understand it will pass. I know I will feel better tomorrow, and if not, the next day, the day after, or sometime down the road. In the meantime, I soften my load. I think less, as I have found that sometimes more thinking equals less thought. Simply, more data coming in is not helpful. It actually makes me less insightful, less lucid, less able to form reasonable conclusions. The upshot of all this for me is that when I am in this state, I take a break from making my money work. I pull back so I won’t make any mistakes.
If, at any time, you feel as I do now, my advice is that you do the same. Soften your load, pull back, take a break. The market will still be there tomorrow, the next day, and the day after that.
For me, though, taking a break does not mean complete cessation of all market-related activities. I still want to understand the market, well, as best I can, given the market’s ability to fool me, to hide its rational or irrational state of mind. I still want to have a sense of where it is going near term and longer. So, even though I am tired today, I still search out clues to future market direction.
- The U.S. trade gap narrowed unexpectedly in February as crude oil imports fell to their lowest level since March 1996 and overall exports increased slightly.
- The day after a wildly bearish Energy Information Administration supply report showed that crude supplies are at the highest level for this time of year in 82 years, refinery runs are at a six-year high for this time of year showing refiners are ahead of schedule going into the summer driving season.
- American employers hired at the slowest pace in nine months in March, a sign that Washington’s austerity drive could be stealing momentum from the economy.
I gotta go now. I have to check the market and then go take a nap.
Trade in the day; Invest in your life …
