Maybe we all should get ready for a big ride to the downside of the roller coaster. I say this not because I believe we will take that ride, rather I say it because Dr. Nouriel Roubini is telling us to get ready for the ride.
“Dr. Doom” Nouriel Roubini, says the “perfect storm” scenario he forecast for the global economy earlier this year is unfolding right now as growth slows in the U.S., Europe as well as China. In May, Roubini predicted four elements – stalling growth in the U.S., debt troubles in Europe, a slowdown in emerging markets, particularly China, and military conflict in Iran – would come together to create a storm for the global economy in 2013.
Dr. Roubini gained his fame for predicting the financial collapse of 2008, and he has since parlayed that fame into a prediction business that has failed time and again to get it right. The good doctor has been telling us for several years now that all is going to heck in a hand basket. A year ago March, he predicted oil would go to $150. Today both Brent and WTI are below $100. Perhaps the following quote best sums up this opportunistic purveyor of doom.
Roubini might be able to charge $150,000 for an appearance, but it seems like it’s getting more difficult to find sponsors who are willing to fork over that kind of cash for his sub-par predictions.
My point here is if you follow him or his ilk, you are bound to end up losing your money. True, his “perfect storm” prediction might come true, more or less, but it might not as well. Even a broken clock is right two times a day, and that is him in a nutshell. So, stick to the plan, which is to track leading indicators on a global scale. Don’t take the easy path of listening solely to others, because if you do, you will trade opportunity for chance. Economists such as Dr. Roubini are a dime a dozen in the financial world, so don’t forget, you always get what you pay for …
Below are three interesting questions from a reader. I find them interesting because of their obscure nature. What, exactly, is the reader asking in each question?
When a major economic world event or local event happens, how much of an effect does that have on the candlesticks? Will you notice a Doji, or similar uncertainty with the candlestick patterns? Will the patterns be overwhelming or miniscule?
Well, the answer to all three questions is: I guess that depends on the nature of the world or local event. Candlesticks represent the price action of a market, the highs and lows in a trade. Thus, any candlestick will reflect any event that affects the market it represents. If the event is hugely negative or hugely positive, the candlestick will reflect the ensuing movement of the market.
Here are three more questions I find interesting for the same reason I find the above interesting.
What is your opinion about euro/usd outlook? Will it go down below 118.00 this time? Eurozone economic growth forecast is close to zero for 2012; 2013 will also be a sluggish year, so how far down can the euro go before turning back?
I think the euro will do just fine. I don’t know if it will go below 118 this time, whatever “this time” means. I guess it can go to parity or less, as anything is possible.
Sometimes, I wish I could be more helpful …
Trade in the day; Invest in your life …
