February precipitation across both northern and southeastern Australia has remained consistent, with a change in the southeast that is worth noting.  Historical analysis uncovered an interesting relationship, which is of particular importance in the milk producing regions, centered in New South Wales and Victoria. 

Through analyzing the pattern in NSW & VIC for the last 30 years, it can be inferred that the heat stress potential on dairy/livestock herds in this region is limited.  This is important in the context of current milk prices, as well as prices in the broader commodity complex.

 

 

The analysis found that when (usually summer) monthly precipitation for the current month was at least 125% of normal, monthly maximum temperatures for current month do not (60+ years) average a value that is greater than 1 standard deviation above the mean.  Weather data is for stations that are situated in the heart of the dairy producing regions.  Further, when a particular month experiences rainfall in this range, the following month (+1) also does not exceed this temperature threshold. 

Therefore, we can assume that heat stress for herds not only can be limited in March, but the relationship should also hold for April.  This is a positive factor for milk production in southern Australia & NZ; also a favorable pattern for grassland/grazing conditions.  The current vegetation index (NDVI) from USDA-FAS supports this view.

 

 (2010 is the 2009/10 season.  2011 is the 2010/11 season)

 

 

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