Well, I arrived here in Barcelona Spain. I made it. I must admit I am tired. I slept 12 hours last night. Today, I got my bearings somewhat, found the money supply, and figured out the transportation. Tomorrow, I travel to my apartment in Costa Brava where I can settle in and find a groove. One thing about traveling – it takes you out of your groove …
Greece still seems to be driving the market, as the U.S. economic good news did little to push the DIJA higher, at least three hours before closing. I like the technology move today, a bet that is paying off nicely for those who made it last year or this year …
The noise out of Washington is the payroll tax-cut extension will go through smoothly, but how often have we heard this before? Maybe this time, the politicians have figured out that playing politics with people’s money is a big no-no. If it does fail, look for the market to react badly, as I think the market is just beginning to believe the positive U.S. economic movement is real. More numbers came out today that support the notion.
- Factory output jumped 0.7 percent last month on big gains in autos, machinery.
- Businesses increased stockpiles 0.4 percent in December, indicating they expect higher sales.
- Retail sales rose 0.4 percent in January as consumers rebound from weak showing in December.
Now, before I get too far ahead of myself on this economy thing, I have to say the Iranian thing is worrying me. That “backed-in-a-corner” country is now threatening to cut off oil to six European countries and it went ahead today and loaded a nuclear reactor. Israel responded with a veiled threat in the form of a warning to other countries about Iran’s intentions. The consequence of this loud banging is that oil jumped to its highest price in six months. If there is one thing that will keep the consumer from spending on any discretionary items, it is the price of gasoline as it rises higher and higher.
As always, our “local” politics and the geopolitics find a way to jiggle the market. That will never change, as far as I can see anyway. The thing the market ultimately cares about is a good economy with businesses making money. Someday, we will get there, unless the historic cycles are nothing more than outdated history. The labor report at the end of this month will point to at least a partial future for the economy. Of course, that comes out just after we know how the new EU economic accord negotiations go, which will tell us how the ECB will react, and that will tell us whether Europe is going down or up. Everybody just take a seat and wait for the announcer to declare the results …
In the meantime, I will do my best to acclimate to the market from over here. I suspect it will take me a day or two or three, but I will get there. And when I do, I will start looking at the market from a European perspective, which, I am sure, I will quite interesting …
Trade in the day – Invest in your life …
