* Latest Market Developments *
NOTE: I am out of the office all week this week. My friend and fellow market analyst Ken Seehusen will be producing my report today. Ken’s format and style is a bit different than mine, but I think you’ll enjoy and benefit from his work, too.
—Jim Wyckoff
The STOCK INDEXES
The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Tuesday’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week’s rally, September’s high crossing at 4106.00 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday’s low crossing at 4004.25 would renew this month’s decline while opening the door for a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 3936.66 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 4084.00. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 4106.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 3936.66. Second support is 38% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 3843.79
The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this week’s rally into uncharted territory. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year’s rally to new highs, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below Monday’s low crossing at 1969.00 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2002.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 1969.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1930.20.
December T-bonds were lower as they extend the decline off August’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August’s high, the 62% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 134-17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-00 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 136-25. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 135-21. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 134-17.
ENERGY MARKET
October Nymex crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 96.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term trend change has taken place. If October resumes the decline off June’s high, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2011-rally crossing at 85.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 96.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 97.75. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2011-rally crossing at 90.62. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2011-rally crossing at 85.64.
CURRENCIES
The December Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 84.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 84.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 84.96. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 84.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.60.
GRAINS
December corn was fractionally lower overnight and and remains poised to extend this summer’s decline into October when a seasonal low is due to be posted. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May’s high, monthly support crossing at 3.24 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.53 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.53 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.70. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 3.35 3/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.24 1/2.
December wheat was lower overnight as it extends this year’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at 4.75 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.33 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.12. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.33 1/2. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 4.91. Second support is monthly support crossing at 4.75 1/2.
November soybeans was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this summer’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If November resumes this summer’s decline, monthly support crossing at 9.30 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.09 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.09 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 10.38. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 9.69 1/2. Second support is monthly support crossing at 9.30 1/2.
