OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading is lower gold and crude oil prices. The hurricane in the Caribbean is now not expected to directly hit U.S. land, and that’s bearish for crude. The U.S. dollar is slightly higher versus the other major currencies. The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early electronic trading. U.S. Treasuries are modestly lower, too. Some markets may be quieter today, ahead of Friday’s key U.S. jobs report.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is U.S. jobless claims, factory orders, the ISM non-manufacturing index, DOE natural gas stocks weekly data and U.S. chain store sales data.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Trading has been choppy this week, But bulls have been working prices up from their mid-July lows and they still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish. However, the 4-day moving average is turning down and could produce a bearish signal by moving below the 9-day as soon as today. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday’s low of 1,276.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,270.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at the overnight high of 1,284.20. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then heavier buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at the July high of 1,289.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,282.75
1st Support:—— 1,277.50
2nd Support:—— 1,270.75
1st Resistance:— 1,289.50
2nd Resistance:— 1,294.75
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are neutral. The 4-day is turning down and could move below the 9-day moving average as soon as today. The 9-day moving average is now above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,493.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at this week’s low of 1,483.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 1,520.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at this week’s high of 1,526.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,507.50
1st Support:—— 1,495.25
2nd Support:—— 1,480.50
1st Resistance:— 1,522.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,534.50
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday’s low of 11,170 and then more stops just below support at this week’s low of 11,110. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 11,255 and then heavier buy stops just above resistance at last week’s high of 11,280. Shorter-term moving averages fully bullish today, with the 4-day moving average above the 9-day and the 18-day today. The 9-day is moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,220
1st Support:—— 11,185
2nd Support:—— 11,135
1st Resistance:— 11,270
2nd Resistance:— 11,305
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are modestly lower in early trading in Chicago. Prices overnight pushed to another fresh nearly four-month high. The bulls have solid upside near-term technical momentum. However, look for quieter trading today ahead of the jobs report Friday morning.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 108 23/32. Heavier buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops also likely reside just above technical resistance at 109 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 108 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at Wednesday’s low of 108 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 108 13/32
1st Support:—– 108 4/32
2nd Support:—– 107 24/32
1st Resistance:– 108 25/32
2nd Resistance:– 109 2/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 106.08.5, and then more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 106.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 106.00.0, and then more sell stops just below support at Wednesday’s low of 105.29.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 106.03.0
1st Support:—— 105.31.0
2nd Support:—— 105.25.0
1st Resistance:— 106.09.0
2nd Resistance:— 106.13.0
