Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 17-month lows and remains bearish.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above 8-month highs, while absolute price rose above 6-month closing price highs. Bullish.
Technology stock sector absolute price is poised to turn bullish: the 50-day SMA is likely to cross above the 200-day SMA within a few days.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 11-month highs.
Gold price soared above previous all-time highs.
Copper price rose further above 2-year highs.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below 11-day lows on 10/14/10, again confirming a change in the short-term trend to the downside, at least.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,173.81) eased moderately lower by 4.29 points or 0.36%. Such minor price pullbacks are normal and expected in any uptrend. We continue to assume that the bulls are in control until proved otherwise.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
16.18% , MBI , MBIA
18.74% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
1.04% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
4.48% , EMC , EMC
2.96% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
4.46% , YHOO , YAHOO
0.58% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
4.79% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
4.55% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
2.29% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.93% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
3.69% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
0.09% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
1.32% , TNB , THOMAS & BETTS
0.85% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
0.95% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
1.11% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
1.60% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
1.70% , MCD , MCDONALDS
0.78% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
0.20% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
1.98% , F , FORD MOTOR
0.88% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
0.72% , KBH , KB HOME
0.36% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
0.29% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
1.63% , EBAY , EBAY
0.91% , HSP , HOSPIRA
1.32% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
1.55% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
1.59% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
0.89% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.70% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
1.79% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
0.80% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
1.30% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
1.21% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
0.39% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
0.81% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
0.64% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-23.23% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-14.92% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-12.25% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-16.83% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-8.95% , WPO , Washington Post
-0.54% , NY , Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
-10.08% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-1.73% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
-5.19% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-4.22% , WFC , WELLS FARGO
-3.54% , FHN , FIRST TENNESSEE
-0.91% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-5.12% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-0.73% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.93% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-2.06% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-4.23% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-2.51% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
-3.96% , CAR , Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)
-0.41% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-1.17% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-4.38% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-2.85% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-0.64% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
-2.14% , BBT , BB&T
-1.26% , PWJ , Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
-2.21% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
-1.07% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.16% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.64% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-1.28% , KSS , KOHLS
-1.46% , MTB , M&T BANK
-0.58% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-1.39% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.73% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-2.24% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-2.38% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
-1.22% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-1.78% , XLF , Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.77% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose to another new 3-month high on 10/8/10 and remains bullish. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose further above 2-year highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish. Support 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 33.04, 35.00, and 36.16.
Technology (XLK) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) turned bullish on 9/27/10 as the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLK rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and is poised to turn bullish: the 50-day SMA is likely to cross above the 200-day SMA within a few days. Support 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) crossed back above its rising 50-day SMA on 10/8/10, thereby turning bullish again. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish. Support 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 34.80, 35.47, and 37.56.
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 10/14/10 but remains technically neutral. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 but remains technically neutral. On both charts, the 50-day SMAs are below the 200-day SMAs. Price peaked at 62.30 on 4/26/10. Support 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) remains neutral, consolidating gains between its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Absolute price rose further above 2-year highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish. Support 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 3-month lows on 10/13/10 and remains neutral, below the falling 50-day SMA. Absolute price of XLU rose above 10-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 31.27, 30.76, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.08.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 5-week lows on 10/12/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV remains neutral. Price peaked at 33.16 on 1/20/10. Support 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 17-month lows on 10/14/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLF is remains neutral, below its 200-day SMA and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. XLF has been bearish most days after peaking at 17.12 on 4/15/10. Support 13.29 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose further above 7-year highs on 10/4/10, again confirming a secular (major) bullish trend. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs to confirm RS.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above 8-month highs on 10/14/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the falling 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above 6-month closing price highs on 10/14/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio has begun to outperform again in recent weeks. The 50-day SMA remains moderately below the 200-day SMA but is closing the gap.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell further below 3-month lows on 9/30/10. The ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose further above 2-month highs on 10/8/10 but remains technically neutral, with the rising 50-day SMA moderately below the rising 200-day SMA.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 9/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price continued to consolidate gains after rising above 5-month highs on 10/7/10. Longer term, Oil has been consolidating more or less sideways/neutral in a choppy trading range since topping at 87.15 on 5/3/10. Support 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 84.43, 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price rose above previous all-time highs on 10/14/10. All trends remain bullish. Support 1341.1, 1325.6, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: none.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) have been disappointing in recent weeks, underperforming after rising above 8-month highs on 9/22/10, for a bull trap.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 2-year highs on 10/14/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold significantly since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose further above 2-year highs on 10/14/10, again confirming a major uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.6445, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 4.0825 and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below 11-day lows on 10/14/10, again confirming a change in the short-term trend to the downside, at least. In addition, there could be a chance for a potential double top around recent highs of 135.12 and 135.19. Support 131.21, 129.05, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 2-month highs on 10/13/10 but remains neutral, with the falling 50-day SMA below the falling 200-day SMA.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose above 8-month highs on 10/14/10 and has been rising since 8/24/10. This implies that fixed-income investors have been choosing more inflation protection since 8/24/10.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 10-month lows on 10/14/10, thereby confirming a bearish trend for the short term and intermediate term. Long term, USD may be in a secular downtrend and merely consolidating losses since bottoming at 70.805 in March 2008. Support 76.47, 75.90, 74.27, and 70.805. Resistance 82.335, 83.315, 83.64, 83.96, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 47.2% Bulls versus 24.7% Bears as of 10/13/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 1.91, up from 0.78 on 9/1/10. That 0.78 was the lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. Previously, the ratio had fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.53, and the mean is 1.60.
VIX Fear Index plunged below 5-month lows, breaking 19 on 10/11/10, down from 48 in May. A low and falling VIX suggests increasing bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory suggests a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007. On Friday 9/24/10, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose to a new 4-month closing price high and on Tuesday 9/28/10 the Dow-Jones Transportation Average confirmed by making a new 4-month closing price high. This signals an intermediate-term Secondary uptrend, according to The Dow Theory.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,173.81) eased moderately lower by 4.29 points or 0.36%. Such minor price pullbacks are normal and expected in any uptrend. We continue to assume that the bulls are in control until proved otherwise.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.29% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.42% Germany Index, EWG
1.21% Austria Index, EWO
1.07% France Index, EWQ
0.99% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.98% Spain Index, EWP
0.90% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.89% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.88% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.85% Australia Index, EWA
0.85% Italy Index, EWI
0.83% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.82% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.80% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.79% Belgium Index, EWK
0.77% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.76% South Korea Index, EWY
0.74% Japan Index, EWJ
0.70% European VIPERs, VGK
0.70% EAFE Index, EFA
0.61% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.60% Sweden Index, EWD
0.60% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.58% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.52% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.51% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.47% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.44% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.43% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.38% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.34% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.31% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.31% China 25 iS, FXI
0.28% Global 100, IOO
0.20% Dividend International, PID
0.15% Singapore Index, EWS
0.13% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.08% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.06% Energy DJ, IYE
0.04% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.04% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.02% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.02% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.01% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.00% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.00% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.02% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.03% Energy Global, IXC
-0.04% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.04% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.05% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.07% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.08% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.10% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.11% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.12% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.12% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.13% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.13% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.14% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.15% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.15% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.15% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.16% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.16% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.16% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.17% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.17% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.17% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.19% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.20% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.20% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.23% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.24% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.25% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-0.25% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.26% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.26% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.27% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.27% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.31% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.31% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.32% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.32% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.34% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.34% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.36% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.37% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.37% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.38% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.38% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.38% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.39% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.42% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.44% Russia MV, RSX
-0.44% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.44% Canada Index, EWC
-0.44% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.45% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.46% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.46% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.48% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.49% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.50% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.50% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.51% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.52% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.52% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.54% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.54% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.54% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.57% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.57% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.57% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.58% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.59% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.61% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.63% Water Resources, PHO
-0.71% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.73% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.81% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.86% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.88% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.94% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.95% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.03% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.07% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.10% India PS, PIN
-1.17% Networking, IGN
-1.39% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.50% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.53% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.58% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.78% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.16% Financial Services DJ, IYG
