S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,125.07) rose 3.97 points or 0.35% on 9/15/10 after reversing early weakness. Although price demonstrated some resilience, volume fell, thereby denying bullish confirmation. Volume has been relatively low on rallies for months, suggesting a lack of confidence. Absolute price of SPX remains neutral, above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, but with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. For more than 3 months, the stock market has been consolidating losses in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/10. Even if there is an attempt to probe new 3-month high territory, which would not be a surprise given the proximity, substantial upside price follow-through with volume confirmation would be needed to validate a trend change. Further consolidation still seems most likely in days ahead.

Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 8-month highs on 9/15/10, confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold since 8/20/10.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.92% , NOVL , NOVELL
1.27% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
6.26% , PLL , PALL
4.69% , YHOO , YAHOO
3.74% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
5.24% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
5.42% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
0.48% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
3.99% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
2.39% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
8.95% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
2.45% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
4.99% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
3.22% , BCR , C R BARD
0.39% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
0.55% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
4.47% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
5.50% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
2.49% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
2.22% , AVP , AVON
5.70% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
2.69% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
2.34% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
0.19% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
1.17% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
2.31% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
0.34% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
1.72% , KFT , Kraft Foods Inc.
2.52% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
1.87% , COH , COACH
0.87% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
2.11% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
1.71% , NKE , NIKE STK B
2.77% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
2.27% , JWN , NORDSTROM
0.54% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
2.61% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
1.93% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
1.49% , CEPH , Cephalon Inc
0.54% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-13.35% , PWER , POWER ONE
-2.31% , NEE , NextEra Energy Resources LLC
-2.41% , WPO , Washington Post
-2.54% , USB , US BANCORP
-2.00% , CMI , CUMMINS
-2.82% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
-1.25% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
-1.67% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-0.99% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-4.54% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-1.75% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
-1.48% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
-2.53% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-0.23% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-0.38% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-1.92% , SUN , SUNOCO
-0.33% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
-0.98% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-1.88% , AES , AES
-1.44% , TYC , TYCO INTL
-0.84% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-0.81% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-0.67% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
-0.99% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
-1.48% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.12% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-0.66% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.83% , CBS , CBS CORP.
-1.46% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-0.90% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.66% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
-0.96% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.92% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-0.92% , F , FORD MOTOR
-0.80% , AMP , Ameriprise Financial Inc.
-0.56% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
-1.36% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
-2.06% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-0.98% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-0.92% , CR , CRANE

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose to another new 2-month high on 9/3/10 and remains bullish. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 2-month high on 9/14/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 32.41, 33.12, 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.

Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose further above rising 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 9/8/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose to a new 4-week high on 9/13/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.77, 27.67, 26.79 and 26.66. Resistance 31.15, 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose to a new 8-month high on 9/13/10 and has turned bullish, with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 4-month high on 9/13/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA. Support 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 35.47 and 37.56.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell to a 4-week low on 9/13/10 and turned neutral by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 3-month high on 9/15/10 but still remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. SMA. Support 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 27.46, 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell to a 4-week low on 9/13/10 and turned neutral by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price of XLU rose to a new 8-month high on 9/7/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.29, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 31.74 and 32.08.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7-months on 9/10/10. XLK/SPY is bearish, below both 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 below the 200. Absolute price of XLK remains neutral, above the 50-day SMA but with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 20.01 and 19.51. Resistance 22.62, 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.

Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV has been bearish since peaking on 1/20/10. Support 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 29.98, 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 9-month low on 8/30/10 and remains more bearish than bullish—despite an oversold bounce off the low of 8/25/10. Absolute price of XLF turned mostly bearish after peaking at 17.12 on 4/15/10. The price 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Support 13.29 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.

Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been mostly bearish since peaking on 7/1/08. Absolute price of XLE turned mostly bearish after peaking at 62.30 on 4/26/10. Support 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to another new 7-year high on 9/14/10, again confirming a secular (major) bullish trend. Absolute price rose to a new 4-month high. Price of EEM turned bullish on 9/9/10 when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 5-week highs on 9/14/10 and above both the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA. The ratio remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose further above 5-week highs on 9/3/10 and remains bullish. Longer term, RSP/SPY has been bullish (trending upward) since 11/19/08. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) appears to be trending lower again in recent weeks, since 8/3/10. Big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) is neutral. The ratio has been correcting and consolidating since making a 13-year high on 5/17/10.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 7-week highs on 9/15/10 and remains bullish. Longer term, MDY /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/7/99. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA moderately below the 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract has firmed moderately since making a low at 70.76 on 8/25/10. The short-term trend appears tentative, not bearish, but not bullish either. Intermediate term, Oil has been consolidating more or less sideways/ neutral in a trading range since 5/3/10. Support 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 83.40, 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract broke out to a new all-time high on 9/14/10, confirming its preexisting secular bullish trend. Intermediate term, Gold has been in a uptrend since making a low at 1155.6 on 7/28/10. Support 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, 1155.6, 1124.3, 1120.9, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9, and 989.3. Resistance: 1300.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been whipsawing sideways through moving averages in recent months. Best stand aside until a clear trend emerges.

Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 8-month highs on 9/15/10, confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold since 8/20/10.

Copper nearest futures contract price has held up well, consolidating gains since its high on 9/3/10. Copper rose above 4-month highs on 9/3/10, again confirming an intermediate-term Secondary Uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.68, 3.795, 4.0825, and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below 4-week lows on 9/13/10 before reversing to close higher. Bonds might be oversold for the short term. The Bond rose to its highest level in 19-months on 8/25/10, again confirming that the major trend remained bullish. Support 129.05, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 133.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has recovered slightly since falling below 3-month lows on 8/26/10. The Ratio has been heading lower (underperforming) most of the time since the peak on 1/8/10. From 3/9/09 to 1/8/10, JNK/LQD was bullish, with the ratio moving upward and JNK outperforming.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been RELATIVELY bearish most of the time since peaking on 1/8/10. This implies that investors have been choosing less inflation protection.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price broke down further below 4-week lows on 9/14/10, again confirming bearish trend for the short term. The Secondary, intermediate-term trend appears probably bearish. Long term, USD may be in a secular downtrend and merely consolidating losses since bottoming at 70.805 in March 2008. Support 80.745, 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90, 74.27, and 70.805. Resistance 83.315, 83.64, 83.96, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 36.7% Bulls versus 31.1% Bears as of 9/15/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 1.18, up from .078 on 9/1/10, which was the lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

The Dow Theory suggests a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,125.07) rose 3.97 points or 0.35% on 9/15/10 after reversing early weakness. Although price demonstrated some resilience, volume fell, thereby denying bullish confirmation. Volume has been relatively low on rallies for months, suggesting a lack of confidence. Absolute price of SPX remains neutral, above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, but with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. For more than 3 months, the stock market has been consolidating losses in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/10. Even if there is an attempt to probe new 3-month high territory, which would not be a surprise given the proximity, substantial upside price follow-through with volume confirmation would be needed to validate a trend change. Further consolidation still seems most likely in days ahead.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1040.00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1131.23, high of 6/21/2010
1127.36, high of 9/14/2010

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.61% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.98% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.96% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.85% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
1.44% Sweden Index, EWD
1.29% Spain Index, EWP
1.28% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.25% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.15% Germany Index, EWG
1.10% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.03% Austria Index, EWO
0.98% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.96% France Index, EWQ
0.96% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.95% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.95% European VIPERs, VGK
0.93% Italy Index, EWI
0.91% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.90% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.86% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.83% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.82% Australia Index, EWA
0.80% Belgium Index, EWK
0.71% South Africa Index, EZA
0.67% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.67% EAFE Index, EFA
0.66% Mexico Index, EWW
0.62% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.61% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.58% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.54% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.54% Dividend International, PID
0.50% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.49% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.47% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.47% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.46% India PS, PIN
0.44% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.43% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.42% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.41% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.41% China 25 iS, FXI
0.38% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.38% Global 100, IOO
0.36% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.35% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.35% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.34% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.32% Networking, IGN
0.30% Japan Index, EWJ
0.30% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.29% Canada Index, EWC
0.26% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.24% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.24% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.22% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.21% Energy Global, IXC
0.21% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.20% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.18% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.16% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.13% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.12% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.12% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.09% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.07% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.07% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.05% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.02% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.00% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.00% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.00% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.02% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.02% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.02% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.03% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.05% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.06% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.06% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.06% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.06% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.08% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.08% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.08% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.10% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.11% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.12% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.12% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.13% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.13% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.13% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.14% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.16% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.17% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.18% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.18% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.18% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.19% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.19% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.19% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.19% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.20% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.20% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.22% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.22% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.22% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.24% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.24% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.24% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.25% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.26% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.29% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.29% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.31% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.31% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.31% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.31% Water Resources, PHO
-0.32% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.35% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.38% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.40% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.41% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.42% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.43% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.53% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.54% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.57% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.59% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.71% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.74% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.77% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.82% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.86% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.88% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.88% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.05% Russia MV, RSX
-1.97% Thailand MSCI iS, THD